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| It's official: U.S. in a recession since December 2007 |
| 2008-12-01 |
| The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the U.S. has been in a recession since December 2007, making official what most Americans have already believed about the state of the economy. The NBER is a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures. "The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment," said the group's statement. "This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then." Employers have trimmed payrolls by 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of this year. On Friday, economists are predicting the government will report a loss of another 325,000 jobs for November. The NBER also looks at real personal income, industrial production as well as wholesale and retail sales. All those measures reached a peak between November 2007 and June 2008, the NBER said. In addition, the NBER also considers the gross domestic product, which is the reading most typically associated with a recession in the general public. Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession. The current recession is one of the longest downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930's. The last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001) lasted eight months each, and only two of the 10 previous post-Depression downturns lasted as long as a full year, according to the NBER. In a statement, White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto said that even though the recession is now official, it is more important to focus on the steps being taken to fix the economy. "The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that's where we'll continue to focus," he said. "Addressing these areas will do the most right now to return the economy to growth and job creation." |
| Posted by:tipper |
| #7 FOXNEWS AM > CAVUTO Show Guests > MALE PERT [Govt]claims 'tis the WORSE RECESSION SINCE 1973-1974 [read, Vietnam + Nixonism + Quagmire]; VERSUS FEMME PERT [WSJ] whom claims US IS AT WORSE HEADING TOWARDS AN ECON "KATRINA/NAW ORRLEENS" TEMPORARY DOWNTURN [read, LEVEE/DIKE-/NUMBERS-GATE, Govt Planning], NOT ANY PER SE DEPRESSION OR STAGFLATION??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-12-01 19:32 |
| #6 They are padding the data so it looks like the "recession" hit during Bush's term and The ONE fixed it within a year of his coming to office. That is, if his runaway spending and crushing taxes doesn't push this economy into a depression. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2008-12-01 15:03 |
| #5 Tipper, that page on Wikipedia just regurgitates the NPER crap. I suppose the "truth" is whatever validates what people wish to be true. So the next question would then be ... what is the absolute definition of "significant". What they have done is muddied the water by going from an absolute definition (two consecutive quarters of contraction) to a subjective definition. Orwell would be proud. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2008-12-01 14:45 |
| #4 Recession |
| Posted by: tipper 2008-12-01 13:48 |
| #3 Idiots. Homer is an idiot. Homer usually doesn't have an agenda. These individuals are working to change the 'dialogue' to fit their meme. Intent is what generally separates idiots from malefactors. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-12-01 13:36 |
| #2 "The last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001)" And it turned out that there was no 1990-19991 recession and there certainly wasn't one in 2001. So the tech bubble is now a "recession"? And I take issue with this statement: "Many people erroneously believe that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of economic activity declining. That has yet to take place during this recession." Two consecutive quarters of economic decline IS the definition of recession. Look at it this way. Can you say the tide is going out without the water level actually dropping? And how do you tell that the level is dropping? Two consecutive measurements with the level lower than the previous measure would be your indication. You can not have a "recession" without the economy actually receding. If the economy doesn't recede, then it isn't a recession. They are attempting to finagle a way to call it a recession while the economy still shows growth. So it becomes two consecutive quarters of failing to meet expectations becomes a recession. Idiots. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2008-12-01 13:20 |
| #1 "U.S. in a recession since December 2007" Only if you change the definition of "recession" from economic contraction to slower growth. People are so spoiled that flat to slow growth is now considered "recession". |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2008-12-01 13:15 |