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| Terror Networks |
| Pondering the Strategic Objectives of Hamas - Galrahn |
| 2008-12-30 |
| Through the first three days, the strategic effect is all too predictable. Oil prices up, the US dollar is down. Is oil actually threatened by actions taking place out of Israel? Uhm, no. Is the dollar in danger because Hamas and Israel are in another conflict? Again, no. What has everyone concerned is that the conflict will escalate, and right now with the options on the table, this is the most likely scenario. How far will the conflict escalate? Right now, that is difficult to predict, but following the patterns of history, if indeed Iran is involved, I believe the expectation should be high that Israel is about to find themselves fighting on more than one front as soon as they commit ground troops into Gaza. The next few days will tell the whole story, but predicting the results is not difficult. When Israel commits ground forces into Gaza to go after Hamas, the expectation should be that Hezbollah will begin a major military attack in northern Israel, likely using unguided rockets striking at civilians. The strategic ramifications will result in even higher gas prices and a further hit to the US dollar, with global outrage from the worlds most vocal actors to quickly condemn Israel. Unlike the Arab countries, Israel will protect their citizens and the death toll of Israeli civilians will not be great, but the retaliation against Hamas and Hezbollah will be, resulting in another mess similar to 2006. The question at that point, particularly if the US economy takes a huge hit from these actions, is what will we do and how will the world react? I could be wrong, but absent any information that shows a strategic objective for Hamas in starting this conflict, it appears to me this conflict is specific to the strategic objective of weakening the US economy, and thus weakening the economies of nations like Israel. In other words, this may look like a simple Israeli conflict with Hamas, and perhaps Hezbollah in the near future, but the intent is to ultimately harm Americans economically. As that objective becomes more apparent to Americans over time, it will be interesting to see how both the outgoing and incoming administrations manage this emerging problem, and if we do nothing in response as per our historical track record, who we blame for the problem. |
| Posted by:3dc |