| Submit your comments on this article |
| Home Front Economy |
| Congressional Budget Office: Rescession will end in 2009 without stimulas bill |
| 2009-02-09 |
| [from a CBO report] CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. (The longest such recessions otherwise, the 1973–1974 and 1981–1982 recessions, both lasted 16 months. If the current recession were to continue beyond midyear, it would last at least 19 months.) It could also be the deepest recession during the postwar period: By CBO’s estimates, economic output over the next two years will average 6.8 percent below its potential—that is, the level of output that would be produced if the economy’s resources were fully employed (see Figure 1). This ecession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment rate. That rate, in CBO’s forecast, rises to 9.2 percent by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen near the end of the 1981–1982 recession. |
| Posted by:mhw |
| #23 Prediction: you will see a serious restructuring in the CBO in the near future. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2009-02-09 22:26 |
| #22 I read the headline to Mr. Wife, and he said they're nuts, the recession will last into 2010 or 2011. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2009-02-09 21:59 |
| #21 They are correct though, the recession will end in 2009. Then we will fire into the beginnings of a depression. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2009-02-09 15:53 |
| #20 The CBO's forecasting model is not perfect of course but it is arguably normative. We have had a huge fiscal deficit 01 through 09 and a huge monetary surge in late 08 to 09. That alone would be enough to send the economy into the recovery side using any normal model. There are, of course some people (the Democratic majority in Congress and the President) who say this situation is so different that we need yet another fiscal surge. However, they are not yet saying that we will probably have yet another monetary surge this quarter because they want to expand the TARP. |
| Posted by: mhw 2009-02-09 14:36 |
| #19 We bitch about the one time $800 billion stimulus spending yet not a word about $800 billion leaving our economy year in and year out. That's money to employ someone else's workers, to modernize someone else's infrastructure and machinery, to educate someone else's children, to fund someone else's pensions and medical care. Try taking 6% out of your savings account each year and see how long it lasts. The US has been feeding the world's growth with the lifeblood of our economy, accumulated sweat and wealth of our ancestors, for so long and retarding our own growth that that there is little left in our veins anymore. Until this bleeding wound is closed, the economic life of this country will continue to fade. |
| Posted by: ed 2009-02-09 14:11 |
| #18 The recession will stay until the market fully corrects for the bad debt. This bears repeating, and perhaps even qualifies for a semi-permanent heading at the 'Burg. The Best and the Brightest™, the financial Masters of the Universe™, the pundits & economists paid to keep track of events like this, 98% of them, completely missed the significance of the Debt Bubble as it was building up, and now we are supposed to give their assessments and recommendations some credence? Did the CBO anticipation the recession prior to 12/07? Please. The severity of the contraction has been modified a bit by $100's of billions dropped into the financial system by the gov't, an unprecedented event. Of course the contraction process will look different than previous ones. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2009-02-09 13:51 |
| #17 Steve you are correct. The current definition is two quarters in a row of Repuplican admin. = a recession. |
| Posted by: AlanC 2009-02-09 13:47 |
| #16 THe stimulus bill stinks, but we must remember it is O's stimulus bill. And Harry's and Nancy's. This thing is going to last a lot longer than 2009 me thinks and the Dems are going to keep screwing up. There will be a rapidly growing opposition to their idiocy. Hopefully their efforts for permanent reign will last only 4 years and then we can clean up the damage. |
| Posted by: remoteman 2009-02-09 13:47 |
| #15 Our keepers have taken care of that Verlaine. The traditional definition of 'recession' no longer applies: it is no longer necessary to have a contracting GDP for two quarters in a row. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2009-02-09 12:37 |
| #14 OK, OK, it's inexcusably lazy of me not to research it myself, but isn't the dating of the recession bogus? Two consecutive quarters of contraction in real GDP had occurred by December '07? Huh? Don't think so. Also the severity of the contraction has clearly, so far, been far less than those of the early 80s or 70s. Apples, oranges, and bananas embedded in much of this, of course, but still. |
| Posted by: Verlaine 2009-02-09 12:13 |
| #13 Yes, Obama will bankrupt the country, take over everything . . .like the census. Just a start. Nationalization, permanent misery, supporting Islam--he's already written all about this in his books. If he can just get people totally dependent on the government dole, he'll have them just where he wants them--under government control. It's his vision. It's his plan. He won't stop. |
| Posted by: ex-lib 2009-02-09 11:24 |
| #12 Didn't Fannie-Mae just loosen lending rules *yet* *again* to entice even more people to mortgages they can't possibly afford? To Err is Human, to Forgive Divine, to really screw things up requires a computer, but to achieve complete and total chaos you need a GOVERNMENT! |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2009-02-09 11:13 |
| #11 I agree DV about trusting the gov't in any guise, NOT. But it strikes me strange that the CBO would say this now. Doesn't Nanny P. & Steny have any control at all? This seems to be a big whack at the one who won by shooting through themselves. What's up with that? Is there a stealth conservative? |
| Posted by: AlanC 2009-02-09 10:38 |
| #10 I don't trust anything any government office says. The recession will stay until the market fully corrects for the bad debt. Until then, it will suck. It will suck even after it starts recovering since it takes a while for product to be sold and new jobs to be created with the extra profits. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2009-02-09 10:08 |
| #9 We got it, misspelt or no. |
| Posted by: Rednek Jim 2009-02-09 09:58 |
| #8 lotto excuse me |
| Posted by: rabid whitetail 2009-02-09 09:37 |
| #7 since they are good at seeing into the future, what's next weeks lottoa numbers? |
| Posted by: rabid whitetail 2009-02-09 09:37 |
| #6 There is no freaking way that this CBO report is correct. These guys have been snorting way too much cocaine. Right now, we are in the "1930" phase, and in 2009 there will be a few false starts that look like a market recovery. But the fundamentals to support a recovery just aren't there. Right now, the Drudge headline is that the feds have promised $9.7T *they* *don't* *have*, in order to support economic bloat so severe that it makes Manuel Uribe look like a supermodel. They are missing the point. The reason the economy has a problem in the first place is the bloat, and we cannot have a recovery until the bloat is gone. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2009-02-09 09:06 |
| #5 But, but, but, it's a catastrophe I tell you! Rahm, Tim, somebody tell them. Catastrophe damn it. I won! I am The One! Why won't they listen. I blame Fox Noise, I blame RushBush and people of non-colour. Where's my bottle, get me my bottle! |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2009-02-09 07:43 |
| #4 Now, as in the depression, the dems will certainly do everything to keep people down, in order to increase the number of folks who are government-dependent. Government-dependent people almost always vote dem. This is a fairly obvious attempt to create a permanent majority. This "stimulus" is a step in that direction. |
| Posted by: no mo uro 2009-02-09 07:17 |
| #3 Uh, uh, OOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPSIES? versus YOUR GOVT. THANKS YOU, AMERIKA, USSA = USR, FOR YOUR US$780BILYUHN DONATION WE MISTAKENLY ASKED YOUSE FOR??? Gut Nuthin. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2009-02-09 02:17 |
| #2 |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2009-02-09 01:22 |
| #1 Obama, Reid and Pelosi don't want to hear this.... |
| Posted by: tipover 2009-02-09 01:01 |