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Home Front Economy
Oil Trades Below $35
2009-02-18
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded below $35 a barrel in New York on speculation that U.S. stockpiles climbed for the 19th time in 21 weeks amid a drop in demand because of the global economic contraction.

An Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 3.2 million barrels last week, according to the median of 11 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities prices fell yesterday to 203.25, the lowest since June 21, 2002, and has slipped 11 percent this year.

Crude oil for March delivery was at $34.96 a barrel, up 3 cents, in electronic trading at 9:31 a.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In New York yesterday, futures fell $2.58, or 6.9 percent, to settle at $34.93 a barrel, the biggest decline since Jan. 27. Prices are down 22 percent this year.

The March contract expires on Feb. 20. The more active April contract was at $38.38 a barrel, down 16 cents, at 9:33 a.m. Singapore time.

Manufacturing in New York declined in February at the fastest pace on record, and JapanÂ’s economy shrank in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of 12.7 percent, the most severe contraction since 1974, government reports showed over the past two days.

Prices for oil to be delivered in future months are higher than for earlier ones, a situation known as contango, allowing buyers to profit from hoarding oil. The price of oil for delivery in April is $3.61 a barrel higher than for March. December futures are up $13.87 from the front month.

The build in supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark grade, is stored, has contributed to the contango. Inventories there climbed 1.7 percent to 34.9 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said on Feb. 11. It was the highest since at least April 2004, when the department began keeping records for the location.

Gasoline stockpiles probably declined 300,000 barrels in the week ended Feb. 13, the survey showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably dropped 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline futures for March delivery were at $1.11 a gallon, down 18 cents, at 9:10 a.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday fell 9.45 cents, or 7.8 percent, to $1.1118 a gallon yesterday in New York, the lowest settlement since Jan. 27

Brent crude oil for April settlement was at $40.55 a barrel, up 20 cents, at 9:22 a.m. Singapore time on LondonÂ’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. It declined yesterday $2.25, or 5.2 percent, to end the session at $41.03 a barrel, the lowest since Dec. 30.
Brent crude is a better marker than West Texas, according to recent reports, since the latter can't be pumped to all the refineries in our country.
Posted by:Steve White

#8  So, how does it affect suicide boomers' fees?
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2009-02-18 12:01  

#7  Heh heh... and ummm.... gasoline has a seperate market from oil.... :)

Posted by: .5MT   2009-02-18 11:16  

#6  The bench mark price is West Texas Intermediate which is only a pittance of the crude used in refined product like gasoline. Most of our gasoline production is dependent on imported oil which has a higher bench mark plus transportation. That is the primary reason gas prices remain static or increase while WTI goes lower.
Posted by: Jack is Back!   2009-02-18 10:23  

#5  In a perfectly efficient market, JohnQC, you might have a point. Unfortunately there's a whole lot that goes into business that gets in the way. WTI has maxed its storage cause you can't move it to where it might be efficiently used so, the demand for it goes down as does the price.

We can't build pipelines fast enough to send WTI to the coasts cause the expense is huge and the risk that the situation would change quickly way too high. So, Brent is in more demand and hence has a higher price.
Posted by: AlanC   2009-02-18 10:10  

#4  The whole oil-gas price thingee sounds a lot like a stacked deck con game--tell the people (us) anything you think they will accept as the truth. Not exactly another Ponzi scheme but similar. The current story is that we get oil from the North Sea and other places where oil is $10/barrel higher and therefore gasoline is higher. No matter that inventories here are bulging. So much for supply and demand theory--just a theory.
Posted by: JohnQC   2009-02-18 08:41  

#3  Yes and no. WTI spot price is $34.93 - $2.58, yet Brent spot is $40.93 + $1.72. It says there is an oversupply of Texas oil, but that doesn't determine the supply or price on the east and west coast consuming hubs where most of the oil is imported or from Alaska. As Steve said, Brent is a better benchmark. WTI is for the commodity options traders.
Posted by: ed   2009-02-18 08:38  

#2  What was REALLY weird was a couple months ago when (wholesale, pretax) gasoline was sold for LESS than the cost of the crude it was made from!

I know, I know: The refineries were making heating oil, with some gasoline as a byproduct. More than the market needed. But still, it was WEIRD. Things are getting back to normal now.
Posted by: Minister of funny walks   2009-02-18 08:15  

#1  Required cranky comment on price of gasoline not matching exactly the price of oil. I blame big oil gauging the little guy.

There done.
Posted by: .5MT   2009-02-18 05:41  

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