SEOUL, July 1 (Yonhap) — The long-range rocket North Korea launched in April could be converted into a ballistic missile capable of striking half of the continental U.S., two American physicists have concluded in a joint study.North Korea launched on April 5 what it claims was a rocket designed to carry a satellite into orbit. The U.S. and its allies say nothing entered orbit, calling the "Unha-2" rocket a disguised ballistic missile capable of flying over 6,700km. South Korean and U.S. officials have refrained from elaborating on the capabilities of the rocket, while media reports said the rocket flew at least 3,000km before falling into the Pacific Ocean.
MIT professor Theodore Postol and David Wright, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), said the rocket could fly even farther — over 10,000km — if converted into a missile. "The Unha launcher represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers and would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of one ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile," they said.
"It could have a range of 10,000-10,500km, allowing it to reach Alaska, Hawaii, and roughly half of the lower 48 states," they said in an article posted this week on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Noting that a "first-generation plutonium warhead could have a mass of 1,000kg or more," Postol and Wright said the rocket could carry a 1-ton payload as far as 7,000-7,500km even if it completed only two of its three stages. "This would allow it to reach Alaska and parts of Hawaii, but not the lower 48 states," they said, writing on the assumption that the rocket was not designed to carry a lightweight satellite.
North Korea, which has conducted two known atomic tests since 2006 — including one on May 25 this year — is not believed to have obtained the capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads to mount on ballistic missiles.
| But the scientists just told you that the missile can mount a 1 ton payload. That's not so 'miniature' ... |
| Even Libya got a copy of the Chinese warhead blueprints. AQ Khan gave it for free when they purchased centrifuges from him. Why would the authors think the North Koreans haven't gotten a copy of this miniaturized nuke design? |
Postol and Wright based their analysis partly on the video footage of the rocket launch North Korea released in April, and said computer modeling and past analysis also contributed to their study. "By measuring the distance the launcher moves as a function of time in these videos, we determined the thrust-to-weight ratio of the Unha vehicle at launch," they said. "Using estimates of the mass of the Unha launcher, we then estimated the thrust at liftoff generated by the engines."
Drawing similarities between the North Korean rocket and the components previously developed by China, Russia and Iran, the physicists concluded that "it's extremely unlikely that these technologies were indigenously produced by North Korea."
"It's likely that these critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, most notably Russia, although likely without the involvement of the Russian government," they said. "If these guesses are true, it could mean that North Korea's indigenous missile capability could be significantly constrained if Pyongyang is denied further access to such components."
Wright and Postol said North Korea would rely on "combining existing components in clever ways" or realize it has "a dead-end program" if it is blocked from importing technical supplies.
| Why is it a dead-end? They continue to make progress. Their latest plutonium bomb had a higher yield than the previous one. Their last missile flew further than the previous one. |
| 'Work with' the Russians to discover just how extensive their canoodling with the Norks has been? Uh, sure, right ... |
| Almost as if it were planned that way ... |
South Korean and U.S. officials say the final stage of the Unha-2 rocket separated but failed to ignite, plunging into the Pacific Ocean along with the payload.