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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Arab street polls: US gaining ground, Iran losing |
| 2009-07-12 |
| [Jerusalem Post Middle East] Several new polls suggest that the United States is gaining ground in the "Arab street," and that President Barack Obama's latest overtures, specifically his June 4 speech in Cairo, were well received by some important Arab constituencies. Although a great deal of skepticism remains, students of Arab public opinion would regard these numbers as surprisingly encouraging. In contrast, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's popularity has slipped dramatically in the Arab world, with many saying that the outcome of Iran's recent presidential election will hurt the region. Approximately half of the Arabs questioned even agree that "if Iran does not accept new restrictions and more international oversight of its nuclear program, the Arabs should support stronger sanctions against Iran around the end of this year." If the Middle East were more like the United States or Europe, an overnight phone poll would provide immediate answers to important questions. The reality is that phone polls in the region are notoriously unreliable and that most individual polls, however elaborate or well intended, are inevitably suspect of government interference, social bias, or other distortions. Still, if evidence from several different pollsters can be gathered, evaluated, and compared, some reasonable and even significant judgments can be rendered. This is precisely the case today when comparatively solid (and in great measure previously unpublished) data of this kind are at hand for three key Arab societies: Egyptians, Jordanians, and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. The data in question derive from three different sources, all using in-person rather than phone or online interviews: the Washington-based Zogby International, the Ramallah-based Palestinian AWRAD Institute, and the Princeton-based Pechter Middle East Polls. This last is a new entrant on the scene, but one whose fieldwork is conducted by a very experienced, professional, and completely apolitical regional commercial survey firm - and unlike most other polls in the region, without any government sponsorship or supervision. The latest Zogby Arab poll was conducted in March and April, several months before Obama's speech and the Iran election, and has had more than its share of methodological problems (including heavily loaded questions) in the past. Still, it provides some context for assessing which issues resonate most in certain Arab societies, with sometimes surprising findings. More up to date and reliable was a West Bank/Gaza poll conducted June 12-14 by the nonpartisan AWRAD institute headed by Dr. Nader Said. A poll conducted from June 15 to 18 in Egypt and Jordan by Pechter Middle East Polls provides the most recent and in many respects the most interesting data. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #3 "Approximately half of the Arabs questioned even agree that "if Iran does not accept new restrictions and more international oversight of its nuclear program, the Arabs should support stronger sanctions against Iran" This is a new and encouraging development. |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2009-07-12 13:10 |
| #2 If Iran is slipping in Arab street polls, it is more likely due to heavy-handedness in the Iran streets by Dinnerjacket and mullahs rather than the BO speech in Cairo. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2009-07-12 09:56 |
| #1 Yea, but when he can't deliver on the destruction of Israel that he's promised them... |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2009-07-12 03:19 |