By Jim GeraghtyIf you think Senate majority leader Harry Reid might lose his reelection bid in 2010, you're not the first to envision that result. In fact, Las Vegas Review-Journal publisher Sherman Frederick predicted back in May 2006 that "in 50-plus months, Nevada voters will march to the polls and replace Sen. Harry Reid, thus ending one of the longer, more powerful political runs in state history." At that point, Democrats had not yet taken control of the Senate.
There was some eye-rolling at Frederick's column when it was published, as it's hard to predict a political environment four years down the road. But 39 months later, that prediction looks pretty reasonable.
As recently as December, liberals were saying that talk of a Reid defeat was a "ridiculous fantasy," citing a lack of serious Republican challengers and the traditional advantages of incumbency. But Reid's numbers have been lousy all year long, with the recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll most clearly sounding the alarm. That one showed Reid losing to two potential GOP challengers, Danny Tarkanian, son of former UNLV coach Jerry Tarkanian, and Nevada GOP chairman Sue Lowden. Reid's favorable/unfavorable numbers are a miserable 36/52, including a 39/48 split among women and 28/57 among independents. A Mason-Dixon poll in August found similar results, with Tarkanian and Lowden ahead of Reid by wide margins among independent voters: Tarkanian by 32 percentage points, Lowden by 22.