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Economy
Dollar facing 'power-shift': analysts
2009-10-13
The dollar's position as the world's leading reserve currency faces increased pressure as the financial crisis allows emerging economies greater influence on the world stage, analysts said.

A report last week in The Independent claiming that China, Russia and Gulf States are among nations prepared to ditch the dollar for oil trades has heightened the uncertainty surrounding the US currency's future.

The dollar slumped against rivals last week in the wake of the British daily's controversial report.

"The US dollar is being hurt by the continued talk of a shift away from a dollar-centric world," said Kit Juckes, an analyst at currency traders ECU Group.

"Three conclusions stand out very clearly. Firstly, the shift in economic power away from the G7 economies is continuing. "Secondly, there is a growing acceptance amongst those winners that one consequence of this power shift will be to strengthen their currencies.

"And finally, as long as the US economy is not strong enough for any rise in interest rates to be conceivable for a long time, the dollar's underlying downtrend will remain in place," added Juckes.

The Independent, under the front-page headline "The Demise of the Dollar", reported last Tuesday that Gulf states, together with China, Russia, Japan and France, were considering replacing the dollar as the currency for oil deals.

"In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning -- along with China, Russia, Japan and France -- to end dollar dealings for oil," wrote The Independent's Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk.

They would switch "to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar," added Fisk, citing Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources.

The report was denied by a host of countries, including Kuwait, Qatar and Russia, while France dismissed it as "pure speculation."

Even so, the United Nations itself last week called for a new global reserve currency to end dollar supremacy, which had allowed the United States the "privilege" of building up a huge trade deficit.

UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, Sha Zukang, said "important progress in managing imbalances can be made by reducing the (dollar) reserve currency country's 'privilege' to run external deficits in order to provide international liquidity."

Zukang was speaking at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, whose President Robert Zoellick recently warned that the United States should not "take for granted" the dollar's role as preeminent global reserve currency.

Meanwhile at a G20 summit in Pittsburgh last month, world leaders unveiled a new vision for economic governance, with bold plans to fix global imbalances and give more clout to emerging giants such as China and India.

Following the summit, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner repeated Washington's commitment to a strong dollar.

But last week the finance chief was left to watch as traders used The Independent's report as an opportunity to push lower the troubled US unit.
Posted by:Fred

#4  ION WMF > SHOCK: SECCESSIONIST CALLS FOR TEXAS INDEPENDENCE FROM WASHINGTON SPREADS TO OTHER US STATES: TEN US STATES AND RISING HAVE ACTIVE SECCESSIONIST ORGANIZATIONS [ e.g. Texas, vermont, North Carolina, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, etal.].

Greatest threat to the US Constitutional Republic + Federalism since 1865 [raed, end of the US Civil War].
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-10-13 22:15  

#3  Except energy is fundamental to the cost of production and transportation. Why do we ban vertical monopolies because it give one party an economic edge over others. By becoming energy independent and cutting the flow of capital out, it provides the country with an economic edge over those who are dependent upon imported energy and the vagaries of the energy market, as witnessed in the speculation boom last year around this time.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2009-10-13 08:08  

#2  lex, see my comment in the natural gas thread.

Otherwise, it's irrelevant what currency oil or any other goods trade in, as long as the currency is convertible.

What matters is currency flows and what currency reserves are held in.

Otherwise, with a declining USD, the US is selling treasures high and buying (redeeming) low. So who's the fool here?

Finally, the whole notion of reserve currencies is a bad thing because it allows trade inbalances to build up. Get rid of reserve currencies and the whole problem (of trade inbalances) self corrects.
Posted by: phil_b   2009-10-13 05:18  

#1  If you want to buck up the buck, then stop buying so much imported oil with it. The dollar's weakness is merely the flip side of oil and other commodity price spikes. Drill domestically, build nuclear power plants, tax gas (and cut the payroll tax), subsidize solar: all of the above. Full court press.
Posted by: lex   2009-10-13 02:05  

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