The government estimates that North Korea will produce about 5 to 10 percent less food this year than last year."This year, North Korea has suffered fertilizer shortage and damage from cold weather. North Korea's estimated production of food last year was 4.31 million tons, but that could fall by about 5 to 10 percent to less than 4 million tons this year," a government official said.
The North produced some 4.01 million tons in 2007, when it suffered such serious flood damage that it had to postpone the second inter-Korean summit.
An intelligence officer said the corn did not ripen well due to low temperatures in May, the early growth period, and again due to drought in July and August. "We presume that they also have problems growing rice as the usual South Korean fertilizer aid of 200,000 to 300,000 tons has been suspended for two years."
In a parliamentary audit on Oct. 23, Unification Minister Hyun In-taek confirmed North Korea is suffering a food shortage.
According to a government official in charge of North Korean affairs, the North needs at least 5 million tons of food to feed people and livestock each year. But the reality is that it produces barely more than 4 million tons and needs to buy or beg at least 1 million tons from abroad.
During the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Mu-hyun administrations, the South Korean government gave the North about 400,000 tons of food aid. China gave 200,000 tons and international humanitarian organizations about 100,000 tons. The remaining shortfall was barely met by illicit trade in the border areas or imports.
The intelligence officer said, "If North Korea's food production falls below 3.5 million tons, there'll be mass defections and starvation. The situation won't be that bad, but with international assistance significantly reduced since its second nuclear test, North Korea will likely suffer a more serious food shortage in 2010 than this year."