No one is going to argue with US President Barack Obama’s decision to back a military surge strategy for Afghanistan by sending an extra 30,000 troops, or for demanding that the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai do more to assume responsibility for running the country. But his insistence that he will order a withdrawal of American troops to commence in just 18 months is another matter entirely.It would be unworthy of me to suggest that Mr Obama, by starting the withdrawal in the summer of 2011, will be well-placed to seek re-election in the 2012 presidential campaign. Even so, to believe that this deeply complex and challenging conflict can be turned around in just 18 months is wildly optimistic, if not naïve.
After eight years of fighting, the Taliban remain as potent a force as ever, even though they have suffered significant casualties. I suspect the Taliban and their allies will be prepared to continue the war safe in the knowledge that in July 2011 the bulk of the enemy will pack up and return home.
There is also the question of the impact the presidentÂ’s comments will have on our regional allies, most notably the governments in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both Islamabad and Kabul will now be calculating whether it is worth supporting the Nato effort if its main military backer is already planning an exit strategy.
All the people I talked to on the ground the last time I was in Kabul earlier this year – diplomats, politicians, generals – agreed it will take a generation or more to get Afghanistan back on its feet. If Mr Obama thinks he can work his special presidential magic and sort it out in just 18 months, then good luck to him.