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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
H1N1 Crests - Could Be Mildest Pandemic
2009-12-09
With the second wave of H1N1 infections having crested in the United States, leading epidemiologists are predicting that the pandemic could end up ranking as the mildest since modern medicine began documenting influenza outbreaks.
Y2K, global warming, and killer influenza aren't living up to expectations.
Experts warn that the flu is notoriously unpredictable, but several recent analyses, including one released late Monday, indicate that the death toll is likely to be far lower than the number of fatalities caused by past pandemics.
But don't worry, there is still plenty to sell newspapers worry about.
The predictions are being met with a mix of skepticism, relief and trepidation: Public health officials worry that people may become complacent about getting vaccinated, which could prove disastrous if a third wave of infections swells later this winter or the virus mutates into a more dangerous form.
Posted by:Bobby

#7  The Ukraine Bird flu was a politically motivated fake.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2009-12-09 22:35  

#6  ION PAKISTANI DEFENCE FORUM > GLOBAL TIMES.cn > EIGHTY PERCENT OF H1N1 DEATHS IN CHINA ARE PREGNANT WOMEN [200 "official" swine flu deaths times 0.80 = 160 preggers]. Rest are mostly ELderly or Chin already in poor health.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2009-12-09 20:46  

#5  Tamiflu may not even be effective at all:

http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/339/dec07_2/b5106
Posted by: European Conservative   2009-12-09 19:57  

#4  With pandemics this widespread, there are likely to be 4 waves, with possible mutations between each wave. But as 'moose points out, the huge risk is that during one of those waves, avian flu picks up human-human transmissibility from repeated interactions with swine flu.
Posted by: lotp   2009-12-09 19:48  

#3  I've started seeing a few articles expressing concern about a third wave of infections, with the third wave possibly containing the nasty mutations seen in the Ukraine, Norway and elsewhere. Recall, it hit so hard in the Ukraine that they locked down the country. The Wife family will be getting inoculated against H1N1 next week, when all are home for the winter break, even if it gives us only partial immunity to the evolving virus.
Posted by: trailing wife   2009-12-09 09:30  

#2  H1N1 was always just a useful "dry run", for all the national and international preparations for the Avian flu, the real threat.

Right now, the obstacle for H5N1 to become H2H is that
H5 viruses can only infect the ciliated ("having a margin or fringe of hairlike projections") cells in the mouth and nose, and a human-to-human transmission would need it to bind with non-ciliated type of cell as well.

It would be highly unlikely to make this adaptive double mutation by itself, so will likely get it by sharing gene segments with another variety of influenza already able to do this. Such recombination happens with considerable frequency in nature.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2009-12-09 08:33  

#1  Someone wanted to use the rapidly ageing stock of (expensive, state bought) Tamiflu.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2009-12-09 08:00  

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