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| India-Pakistan |
| Why sanctions against Iran would discomfit Pakistan |
| 2009-12-17 |
| As the world edges toward tough new sanctions on Iran in a last-ditch attempt to thwart the countryÂ’s nuclear ambitions, PakistanÂ’s security establishment is mulling over its options. The reality is that with a hostile India on its eastern border and a war raging on both sides of its frontier with Afghanistan, the last thing Pakistan needs is an angry Iran to the west. New United Nations sanctions would place an intolerable burden on PakistanÂ’s relations with Iran. These ties were recently strained by the Jundullah attack that killed over 40 Iranians, including several high-ranking Revolutionary Guards officers. In the wake of the terrorist atrocity by the extremist Sunni group, Iran accused Pakistan of sheltering the killers at AmericaÂ’s behest and threatened that it would exercise its right of hot pursuit. PakistanÂ’s consistent support of the Sunni Taliban has been a major irritant between Islamabad and Tehran for years. Against this backdrop, for Pakistan to support tough new sanctions against Iran would cause the countryÂ’s beleaguered army a huge headache. And yet, the reality is that without PakistanÂ’s active cooperation, any new sanctions would fail. With a long, open border dividing the country, there are already enormous amounts of contraband moving back and forth. Sanctions-busting traders on both sides would profit, and Islamabad would turn a blind eye to the traffic. One only has to visit Gawadur, PakistanÂ’s coastal town near the Iranian border, to realize the scale of the smuggling. In the market there, locals can buy everything from frozen chickens to crockery from Iran. Carried on pick-up trucks that drive up and down the flat, hard beach connecting the two countries along the coast, there are virtually no restrictions on this trade placed by either country. In the vast Pakistani province of Baluchistan bordering Iran, the petrol sold is usually from Iran, smuggled across in tankers, as itÂ’s cheaper because of subsidies compared to PakistanÂ’s heavily taxed petroleum products. With these close and long-standing cross-border trading links, it would take a major policing effort to seal the frontier. And given how unpopular any new sanctions on Iran would be in Pakistan, it is doubtful if the current weak civilian government could muster the political will to crack down on the smugglers, most of whom enjoy a degree of semi-official protection. No doubt the Americans would apply pressure on President Asif Zardari to cooperate, but they realize his limitations and they need Pakistan to focus on its ongoing battle on its Afghan border. The last thing the Pakistan Army wants to be told by its allies is that it now has to move troops to its Iranian border. It is likely that the new sanctions will seek to squeeze Iranian exports of crude oil, and its imports of refined petroleum products. Under normal circumstances, this would bring the Iranian economy to its knees. But even if the Americans seek to implement this policy by imposing a naval blockade, Iran could circumvent it by bringing tankers over land to Gawadur. The port there was recently built by the Chinese, and can handle significant volumes of merchandise. This would probably be the key transit point for any sanctions busting. Even though Iran is no longer considered by PakistanÂ’s military establishment as close a friend and ally as it was when ruled by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, it remains a model for many Pakistanis. Although they might not share the Shiite belief that guides the ayatollahs, they think an Islamic revolution is what Pakistan needs. In a conflict that pits America and Israel against their Muslim neighbor, there are no prizes for guessing where public sentiment would lie. As it is, Zardari is viewed as an American puppet, and for him to be seen as supporting the hated Americans and Israelis against Iran would trigger a storm of protest. Many Pakistanis think it hypocritical for the West to accept IsraelÂ’s nuclear arsenal while denying a Muslim country its own nuclear deterrent. Thus, PakistanÂ’s political and military considerations would make it a reluctant partner in any tough new sanctions imposed on Iran. And yet, no sanctions can succeed in seriously hurting the Iranian economy if Pakistan is not fully on board. Finally, Iran has served as a sanctuary for Pakistani military and civilian aircraft during its past wars with India. It has also been a conduit for arms and spare parts in these conflicts. It would be difficult for PakistanÂ’s military planners to forego the strategic depth its neighbor has provided in the past and might again. For them to alienate the Revolutionary Guards at this crucial juncture is almost unthinkable. In case sanctions and a possible naval blockade escalate into a shooting war, PakistanÂ’s dilemma would be even more acute. There is no way the government would allow the United States to use its territory in a military campaign. Planners in Israel and Washington need to be aware of PakistanÂ’s sensibilities and strategic considerations before getting into a situation that further destabilizes Pakistan and the region. |
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| #2 Discomfiting Pakland is a feature, not a bug. They've been playing both sides far too long. |
| Posted by: Whoter McCoy7381 2009-12-17 18:11 |
| #1 lets face it both are enemies because of the common denomimator Islam! |
| Posted by: Glavitle B. Hayes4065 2009-12-17 15:30 |