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| The Matter of Capability Surprise |
| 2010-01-29 |
| 2008 Study - 227 pp - makes some interesting points. Thoughts Alaska Paul...? |
| Posted by:Uncle Phester |
| #2 As the paper points out, some of the surprises in the case studies were not surprises at all to those with relevant knowledge but were nevertheless a tremendous shock to the larger community. The 1957 Sputnik launch was the classic example of this. Americans within the burgeoning missile and rocket industry knew that it could happen at any moment and the US itself was working on its own satellites. What they did not anticipate was the reaction of an uninformed public and media, or the political implications. I will predict that the next great surprise will mirror that one, a Sputnik from Hell in the form of some kind of Chinese or Indian space spectacular. Both have stated the intention to develop such programs; or in China's case to expand theirs. The ponderous, bureaucratic processes of NASA do not necessarily apply everywhere and new participants do not have to repeat all the R&D of past efforts. There is a wealth of US and Soviet space experience to draw on. Various message board posters heaped scorn on India's recent announcement that it would put a man (or woman) in space in a purely national program by 2016. They may not be laughing so hard in a few years. |
| Posted by: Atomic Conspiracy 2010-01-29 10:17 |
| #1 apparently hind site remains 20:20 |
| Posted by: texhooey 2010-01-29 01:31 |