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| Iraq |
| Ukraine - Iraq Big Time Arms Sale |
| 2010-04-10 |
| In December 2009, Ukrainian officials announced a 2.5 billion dollar arms sale to Iraq but, only provided limited details of the first 550 million dollars of the sale. Speculation pieces were written as to where the weapons would be distributed and what the rest of the 1.95 billion would buy. Then the wait began for more details. After 4 months, there have been no more details. Iraq appears to be classifying their arms purchases and the Ukrainians quit talking after their two announcements in December 2009. The initial speculation was that the follow on orders would focus on other weapons like tanks. But, there are other factors to consider. -The Ukrainian announcements said they “hope' to sell Iraq some Oplot tanks. In other words, the tanks were not part of any deals then on the table. - Iraq has no real credit. The Government of Iraq tends to break arms purchases into separate deals that they can pay for within their existing annual budget. 550 million is apparently the first of five annual purchases adding up to a total of 2.5 billion. - The reports contradicted with one saying 6 and the other saying 10 AN32 transport aircraft were ordered. That is not enough to fill a squadron. This means that more AN32s are to be ordered in the follow on contracts. This makes it likely that the purchase of these aircraft is being spread among all five contracts. - The order for 420 BTR4 armored personnel carriers did not provide details on the variant-mix and is too many for just the planned “Strike Team' battalions and too few for the Strike Teams and a brigade per heavy Division. That indicates that there are more BTR4-variants also being purchased and that this is just the first increment of 5 purchases. If the initial 550 million dollar order is just the first increment of 5 annual similar-sized buys of AN32 aircraft and BTR4-varients of armored vehicles, then the total planned purchase looks like 40 AN32s [2 squadrons] and 2,100 BTR4-varients [50-70 battalions at 30-42 per battalion]. Factoring in production, delivery, and training time, this would fit for these units being made operational by 2020. Based on 42 BTR4-varient vehicles per battalion, the purchases are 10 battalions per buy but, neither the Strike Teams or the 37/9 Light Mechanized Brigade are organized with battalions that large. - The initial forming Karkh Area Command Strike Team is to have just over 400 personnel. This means that they are only going to require 30-35 BTR4s in each Strike Team Battalion. - The 37/9 Light Mechanized Brigade is the test-bed for the Iraqi Army Light Mechanized [reconnaissance] Brigade structure. The brigade's 3 battalions are about 30 BTR80s each [98 total] and a battalion of 35 EE9 90mm-gun armed scout cars. Those battalion size-structures indicate that each annual purchase is for 12-14 battalions worth [total of 60-70]. Since the BTR80s are being replaced because they are “not heavily enough armed for the role', this also indicates that the BTR4s ordered will have the Grom turret with its 30mm gun and anti-tank missiles. The structure of the 37/9 LMB also suggests that part of those orders of BTR4-variant vehicles will be for MOP-4K 120mm-gun armed Fire Support Vehicles, sometimes called Tank Destroyers. Each of the 10 planned heavy divisions [4 armored/6 mechanized] of the Iraqi Army are planned to have a Light Mechanized Reconnaissance Brigade. This accounts for half of the 2,100 BTR4-variants ordered or to be ordered. One other factor to be considered is that the 10 Operational Commands and Area Commands receiving Strike Team Battalions are the basis of Iraqi Army, Federal Police, and Joint Corps headquarters. The forming Strike Teams are probably the start of the Corps-subordinate Light Mechanized Reconnaissance Brigades. Those 10 “Commando' Brigades probably account for the other half of the BTR4-variants ordered or to be ordered. This is not the only option; Just a very likely probability. Other options include some or all of the BTR4s going to the planned Federal Police Light Mechanized Division(s) [2-4 planned] or being organized into Iraqi Army Light Mechanized Division(s). Which service or services were to receive these vehicles was not specified. If the initial deliveries go to Ministry of Defense, then it is unlikely any will go to Ministry of Interior [and vice-versa]. ISOF and its new Strike Teams are still under Ministry of Defense, since the Counter Terrorism Service Law has not been passed. The initial BTR4-variants are to start arriving this year. The concept of a Light Mechanized Reconnaissance Brigade or “Commando' Brigade per corps headquarters is not new. The corps structure in the old Iraqi Army had 2 “commando' brigades each. They were equipped with BTR60s to fill the role of reconnaissance/quick reaction Force and rear-area security. US corps' uses Stryker and Armored Cavalry Regiments [brigades in all but name] for recon/QRF and Military Police Brigades for rear-area security. It appears that the Iraqi Special Operations Force and Ministry of Interior's Emergency Response Force brigades are going to fill the wartime corps subordinate “commando' brigade role in the new joint structure. The initial Strike Team Battalions are probably just the start of corps' subordinate brigades, along with the rest of ISOF's battalions. Most of the ISOF battalions are already co-located with the Operational Commands. Arming them with BTR4-varients would fit their corps' role as QRF/Recon. The ERF Brigades will probably fill the wartime Military Police duties [rear-area security] since they are paramilitary police Special Forces. [Iraqi Forces tend to use the word “commando' where the US Army would use Cavalry or the US Marines would use Reconnaissance.] |
| Posted by: Anonymoose |
| #1 They must be assuming that someone else will be supplying their air superiority needs for the foreseeable future. |
| Posted by: BrerRabbit 2010-04-10 08:33 |