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| 63 Democratic House Seats In Play For Republicans |
| 2010-05-09 |
| That Republican wave is looking bigger: 63 Democrat-held House seats are now toss-ups, likely GOP pickups or lean Democrat. That's based on average of estimates from the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics. When IBD looked at that average about a month ago, it was 48. By some estimates, the Republican potential target list is far bigger. National Review's Jim Geraghty recently released his list of 99 Democrat seats in play. RCP's Sean Trende said last month he wouldn't be shocked if Republicans won 100 seats or more, though he stressed a 1994-style result would be more likely. The whole analysis is worth checking out. In 1994, Republicans won 54 seats. This year, they need to pick up a net 41 seats to retake the House. So perhaps it's not surprising that six months from the election, and we're already getting articles about whether Nancy Pelosi will remain leader of the House Democrats should her party return to the minority. Over at Salon (not exactly a pro-GOP website), Mike Madden considers the scenario, but doesn't see any obvious replacements: It's hard to imagine a party suffering such a cataclysm at the ballot boxes wouldn't want to shake up its leadership. (And it's not clear that Pelosi would want to return to being House minority leader after four years wielding the gavel.) But there aren't really any strong candidates to take her place -- because Pelosi has, over the years, outmaneuvered all her rivals.Regardless, speculating about "Minority Leader Pelosi" this early can't be a good omen for the Democrats. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #5 Agreed, lex. |
| Posted by: lotp 2010-05-09 15:09 |
| #4 Those polls understate the gap. Rasmussen, the only pollster who restricts his survey pool to LIKELY voters, has it at 33% right track, 61% wrong track. Let's not get overconfident. Now is the time to ensure that no one falls for Barry's trap and let the "rACiSts!!!" meme take hold and stoke high latinos and afr-amer turnout this fall. Put immigration aside, downplay health care, and focus like the proverbial laser beam on the real unemployment rate, which is rising and is now over 17%. |
| Posted by: lex 2010-05-09 12:30 |
| #3 Tracking polls of how the country is doing indicate that 56.8% of the people think the country is on the wrong track; 34.9% think it is going in the right direction. The other 8.3% = ?. This link shows the trending: Pollster.com |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2010-05-09 11:55 |
| #2 Do not, repeat do not, fall for Barry's trap and rile up his latino and afr-amer base. Everything is going the right way, politically. No need to stimulate Dem turnout by highlighting Mexican immigration any more than it's already been highlighted. Keep quiet this summer, and take revenge against an idiotic and corrupt political class in November. |
| Posted by: lex 2010-05-09 01:45 |
| #1 Bennett lost the primary too. The anti-incumbent feeling is everywhere. Anyone who voted for bail out or any other government expansion is in real trouble. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2010-05-09 00:05 |