Well, well, well -- where have we seen this before? The indiscreet U.S. commander whose tongue digs his own grave. The stunning resignation submitted within hours of the magazine's online posting of the story. And General David Petraeus -- yet again -- as the go-to choice as America's turnaround specialist. Amidst all the nonstop chatter from pundits, politicians, and former ambassadors, allow me to distance myself from the familiar situation I was in with Admiral William Fallon and sift through the tea leaves to look ahead at Petraeus's new gig. Because there are magazine stories, and then there is war. And because -- who knows? -- Afghanistan may be a lot better off, and Obama may have picked his replacement in more ways than one. There's a bit of foreshadowing in that statement!
1. There won't be a policy shift.
Unlike the Fallon saga, this time it was the president who spoke on camera and the general who was restricted to a press statement. That's because this time the Pentagon-White House flap was an issue of perception (Obama: "undermining civilian authority") -- not any fundamental differences on how to fight the war at hand.
2. But the Pentagon now holds the keys to the castle.
Obama may have put his foot down, but he's making a serious gamble in anointing Petraeus, much like Bush did after Fallon's resignation. The president needed to make McChrystal's sacking seem like an upgrade in gravitas, which it is when the upgrade is to the boss of Central Command. Just don't forget that Petraeus is the only general capable of making Afghanistan his war, and not Obama's.
3. Petraeus is truly untouchable.
Understand this, too: Whatever the general wants, the general will get. After firing his Afghanistan commander twice in just thirteen months, Obama has no choice. Petraeus now outranks every administration player on Afghanistan. Save Obama -- officially, at least.
4. Friends of Dave just became a lot more important.
Frankly, the new sheriff's strong personal relationships with the Pakistani military and security forces will matter a helluva lot more than which of McChrystal's lieutenants he keeps on or gets rid of. Hamid Karzai made his bid to keep McChrystal onboard, and was clearly ignored -- as he should be -- so now Obama's Af-Pak strategy will place the most eggs in Islamabad's basket.
5. The administration's review of Af-Pak begins now.
Originally scheduled for public release in December, any White House-led effort at a war report will inevitably take its cues from General Petraeus's own review of the situation as he assumes command in the coming weeks and months. Expect to hear the general outline at Petraeus's confirmation hearing next week, along with previews of the GOP's national-security campaign slogans for November.
6. Obama's 2012 campaign could be all about war.
If Petraeus says the strategy needs more time, then Obama's running for re-election as a wartime president. Period. There's just no
7. Two jobs? One job? Same thing.
No matter what anyone says in the confirmation hearings, it won't matter if Petraeus steps down from CENTCOM or becomes The General with Two Hats. Nobody who would step in at CENTCOM could overshadow Petraeus, so that kind of a choice is unimportant in many respects. But given the general's recent health issues, it's hard to believe a replacement won't be picked. I'm betting on General James Mattis, whom I profiled in detail a couple years ago.
8. The counterinsurgency lives on.
"King David" has no peers when it comes to counterinsurgency credentials, having overseen the creation of the Army-Marine Corps's seminal field manual and commanded its first successful application in Iraq. If anything, Obama has now doubled-down on the COIN path in Af-Pak, so the COINdistas haven't taken any sort of hit.
9. The "Draft Dave" presidential run could live on, too.
Can Petraeus pull off his second COIN miracle? If he does, and if it's perceived as such prior to the GOP convention in the summer of 2012, then I guarantee you there will be a groundswell of delegate support to make him the Republican candidate -- assuming he gets out of uniform in time.
10. There is one big winner from this hoopla.
This is scary.
And her name is Elena Kagan, whose confirmation hearings also happen to begin next week.
Hmmmm.... Could this all be orchestrated by The One, as a distraction?