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| China-Japan-Koreas | |
| What Korea says about US | |
| 2010-07-26 | |
The sinking of the South Korean navy corvette Cheonan this spring was and remains an act of war. The investigation conducted by South Korea, careful and painstaking, makes clear beyond any reasonable doubt that elements of the North Korean Navy sank the ship. The countries of the Pacific, from Japan to the U.S., considered their response. We went to the U.N. We are staging new exercises. We tightened sanctions. We have talked with the Chinese to withdraw their support of Kim Jung-Il. All that was important. None of that mattered. What matters is this: our enemies have taken our measure. We are undone. To borrow the inscription on the wall: Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin. We have been weighed and have been found wanting. The North Koreans, the Chinese, the Iranians, the Pakistanis, and the Russians understand what we have become in two short years. In that time we went from having a resolute leader who somewhat understood the world and who somehow managed to move a divided country to doing what was right in Iraq, to now having an irresolute, inept leader who puts politics ahead of both understanding and principle. In a country that remains as sharply divided as before, this is a recipe for disaster. We have been looking for that disaster to unfold in the Persian Gulf, but it may well unfold instead on the Korean peninsula. South Korea has a well-trained military but is saddled with generals who look to American generals for guidance and approval, and political leaders who are as feckless and unprincipled as our own. The South Korean people, liberated from authoritarian rule just a generation ago and only now enjoying the fruits of their labors as a new, first-world country, not only do not want a war with the North -- they cannot conceive of it. They see the confrontation with their northern cousins more like the 'sitzkrieg' of France versus Germany in early 1940. That is not stable, but they do not see that. Bad as that lack of vision is, what is worse is that the left side of the South Korean political divide is more strident then that of America, hard as that is to believe. Their Left is as willing, indeed more so, to sell their own country down the river as is our own. That means that South Korea does not have the inner confidence to solve this problem and will instead look to the United States. Does anyone think that Barack Obama possesses the wisdom, political will, and leadership necessary to manage the new menace that North Korea insists on being? No. We know it. Our enemies know it. We know that a full, conventional war in South Korea would be horrific, which is why we shy away from it. We understand that the city of Seoul, home to ten million people, is essentially held hostage by North Korean artillery. North Korea could use weapons of mass destruction. It could infiltrate the south with commandos who could attack military bases or further the attacks on civilians. It would be cold comfort to the people of South Korea to see hundreds of thousands of their own citizens dead, dying and wounded in a war that they eventually would 'win'. We also know that 'winning' a war with North Korea means occupying it, and that in turn means feeding the survivors. Those survivors may not be grateful for being 'liberated' from an army-first policy of juche, no matter how many concentration labor camps are emptied. Most of the North Korean people are but a couple hundred calories per week away from abject starvation. A peninsular conventional war will quickly wreck -- indeed, it must do so -- the transport, electricity and storage that provides the little amount of food that North Korean civilians eat. They know it; their leaders have used food as tool of political control. It is exquisite and masterful, the consummate demonstration of absolute power that should land those responsible in Dante's eighth circle. So the North Koreans should welcome us as long as we can quickly feed them, correct? No. Never mind the enormous logistics of occupying North Korea. Never mind that the same terrible infrastructure will hamper any relief effort. Never mind issues such as finance and reconstruction. The North Korean people have been taught for sixty years that we are the enemy. Starvation, fear, and brutality have been institutionalized. The people have been told that they are the pinnacle of human achievement, that the South and Americans are ogres, and that juche requires their absolute adherence to the Dear Leader. Some of that, much of that, will stick. North Koreans lack initiative and do not respond well to the modern, western world. We will not be welcomed even if we were to occupy the North quickly. Nothing goes right in planning a war, something that Iraq taught us, and while Iraq also taught us that patience and continued re-examination will eventually find a strategy that will work, there is no one in Washington today with those qualities. North Korea will fall apart, the misery will be as absolute as one can imagine, and thanks to the western press and the western Left (as Journolist shows us, those are one and the same), America will be held responsible. One might argue that we would not occupy North Korea. The South Koreans would have the same problems as we; the cultural barriers are almost as profound, and they too are defined as the enemy. Nor could we count on any assistance from China. China has its own plan, and allowing North Korea to be occupied is not one of them. Even before one considers a North Korean defeat, we must recognize that China has many ways to aid and abet a North Korean attack without being so direct as to invite retaliation. China believes that the 21st century belongs to them much as the 20th century belonged to the United States and the 19th century belonged to Britain. China patiently seeks hegemony in the Western Pacific. If using North Korea to start a war so as to push us from that region will succeed, that is what the Chinese will do. If starting a war so as to discredit us in the eyes of the rest of the world will succeed, that is what they will do. If using the threat of a war can cause American leaders to concede and buckle, that is what they will do. China likes North Korea the way it is. China could easily fix the problems in that unhappy land. Just a few train-loads of fertilizer and food a month would fix the chronic malnutrition. Instead they permit North Korea to buy missile parts and weapons. China could restrain Kim Jong-Il with a telephone call. Instead they permit him to sink South Korean naval ships. North Korea does little without Chinese approval. China approves. China wants us out of the Western Pacific. They want the Japanese tamed. They want oil, markets, strategic depth and the freedom to take on their next adversary, India. North Korea is a tool that can be used and discarded as is convenient. China must defeat America. They can't do that militarily; Chinese leaders have watched our military in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they know that today, their 1990s era military can't defeat ours. They have learned one fundamental rule about our victory in Iraq: never, ever give the United States time to move its military to a location half-way around the world and set the order of battle. They have learned that instead they must defeat us politically and more importantly, psychologically. They are well on their way. The United States thought it was electing a post-racial, post-partisan 'cool cat' when it elected Barack Obama. It quickly discovered that the elected administration, and its supporters in the press, academia and labor, had decided that, as the Newsweek cover proclaimed, "we are all socialists now". America must be brought down in their eyes so that it can be rebuilt in a statist, more authoritarian, communalist, 'progressive' republic that worries about building a 'New America' and ignores the rest of the world. Call that what you like, that is what they have worked for since the twin goblins of Bolshevism and Fascism rose from the ashes of World War One. A fair portion of this was organized by the Soviets; one need not see a Red under every bed to understand that the Soviets guided a substantial part of the radical, western Left and used it to subvert Europe and America. China is happy to pick up these tools for use alongside their own. North Korea is a tool. The reconquest of Hong Kong is a tool. The threat to invade Taiwan is a tool, as is the occupation of Tibet, the threat to India, the arming of Pakistan, the provision of nuclear plans to Iran, the oil deals with Chavez, and the co-opting of Burma. China has used the North Korea tool well. Through three American administrations, Clinton, Bush and now Obama, it has demonstrated that the United States is inconsistent and irresolute. We try to cut deals, we try to negotiate, we seek to involve regional powers. We apply sanctions that are easily circumvented. We continue to ask China to use its 'good will' to 'influence' North Korea. How they must laugh in Beijing. With virtually nothing at risk, China demonstrates that it is dangerous to trust the United States. George Bush was as responsible as any; witness the weak response to the capture of our patrol plane and the removal of North Korea from the terrorist list. Barack Obama continues the fumbling. Now South Korea knows that the United States isn't completely behind it as it decides to respond to the sinking of one of its own warships. Indeed, what would the U.S. do if the attack had been against an American destroyer? Would we demand satisfaction from North Korea? George Bush could have, though our country might not have followed him. Barack Obama? Demand satisfaction? Our allies notice, as do our enemies. It is no coincidence that Iran threatens nuclear war, that Hugo Chavez increases the torment of his own people, that Burma cancels elections, that Pakistan sponsors terror attacks against its neighbors, that Syria provides Hezbollah with long-range missiles, and that Russia plans a reconquest of old Soviet states. No other country will counter this. Europe is delusional. Britain is weak. Israel is increasingly on its own. India is threatened and not powerful enough to respond outside its own region. Japan is in a long term economic decline. Other regional powers, from Brazil to Turkey, have seen what is happening and have decided to cut their own deals. The sinking of the Cheonan makes clear to the world that the U.S. will not stand behind its ally in responding to an act of war. The South Koreans will not respond on their own. They understand that in the end, they must live with China, and that now China is the strong horse. South Korea over time must move closer to China, and that means moving away from us. Now that the point has been made, the Chinese may well discard Kim Jong-Il and the Kim dynasty. They may install a new warlord and quietly install a Chinese model economy in the North. They can prepare their client for a new job. What does Korea say about the U.S.? We are wanting. | |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #3 I do believe he thinks that he can solve a real-world problem by giving a speech about it It always worked real well when he was a "community organizer". In business you'll occasionally see a manager who's been promoted beyond his competence trying to do his last job rather than his current job. This is because he knows how to do his last job and that's where his comfort zone is. This doesn't usually last long, as the manager in question ignores his real duties and ends up being fired. The best we can do is vote in a new Congress to block Obama for the last two years of his term and try to minimize the damage. |
| Posted by: DMFD 2010-07-26 19:07 |
| #2 I'm not sure I can add anything to what Joe just said, but here are a couple of thoughts. 1- Just in board terms, this good piece of work by Dr. Steve shows us one way to put to rest copyright issues. I've been posting here, although not heavily, for seven years, and my one big takeaway is that there is a lot of writing talent and a incredibly diverse array of knowlege that the regulars can bring to bear when they have the time. To pick two examples, I'd really like to see an opinion piece by tw or Frank. We don't need no steenkin' NYT. 2- Turning to the article: I always enjoy making fun of the Sun King because he's so self-important, but my real concern is that he's going to get us all killed. People who know a lot more about money than I do use the term "discovering the price." The Norks now have this piece of pricing data: the penalty for sinking a South Korean destroyer is a harsh talking to. Which has to lead them to the question: what's the price for sinking a USN vessel? Or for lobbing a few artillery rounds into Seoul? A reasonable extrapolation from what they know now suggests the same result: nothing will happen. The problem isn't so much that the Sun King is ignorant and indecisive, although those traits certainly don't help. The problem is that what he knows is wrong. I do believe he thinks that he can solve a real-world problem by giving a speech about it. If that's right, then our contingency plan for responding to the Norks is a good speech on national TV, courtesy of the TOTUS. This is a truly physically dangerous situation. |
| Posted by: Matt 2010-07-26 14:55 |
| #1 WMF > US SHOCKED: US DID NOT EXPECT US-ROK NAVAL EXERCISE IN YELLOW SEA TO LEAD TO EMERGENCE OF INTERNAL CALLS IN BEIJING DEMANDING POWERFUL EXPANSION OF THE PLA. * SAME > "LE FIGARO" EURO-MEDIA: "NORTH KOREA, CHINA. + THE US NAVY" ARTICLE WARNS THAT NORTH KOREA'S NEW NUCLEAR, OTHER MILITARY THREATS AGZ THE US-ROK MILITARY DRILL IN YELLOW SEA MAY LEAD /INDUCE THE FINAL END OR BREAK-UP OF THE DECADES-LONG FRAGILE STABILITY + MILITARY ARMISTICE ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA. * SAME > CHINA FEARS ANY UNILATER SUPPORT BY BEIJING IN FAVOR OF MORE STRINGENT OR SEVERE UN-LED SANCTIONS AGZ NORTH KOREA OER THE "CHEONAN" WARSHIP INCIDENT WILL INDUCE THE FINAL ECON + STATE COLLAPSE OF NORTH KOREA, + RESULT IN NORTH KOREA TURNING AWAY FROM CHINA TOWARDS THE US + SOUTH KOREA + JAPAN. CHINESE FEARS OF A PERMANENT, ANTI-CHIN US, JAPAN PRESENCE OR INFLUENCE IN NORTH KOREA, ANTI-CHINESE KOREAN REUNIFICATION. * SAME > RISING CHINA "CONTROLS" APPROXI ELEVEN MAJOR OIL FIELDS IN IRAN + LIKLEY MORE IN FUTURE. FEAR BY BEIJING THAT A US-ISRAELI ATTACK + INVASION ON IRAN, LT MIL OCUPATION WILL EVENTUALLY THREATEN CHINA'S ENERGY SECURITY VEE US-WESTERN DOMINATION + CONTROL OF CHINA'S EXTERNAL ENERGY SOURCES. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2010-07-26 00:43 |