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| Afghanistan |
| Afghanistan Forty Years from Now |
| 2010-08-10 |
| A problem that lasts forty years is too long to be solved by the military. A problem that lasts forty years is too long to be solved even by the politicians. Afghanistan has been a problem for the USA since 1996, when the Taliban took over. The Korean War has entered its 60th year, and that problem has not been solved yet. In order to understand Afghanistan in 2050, we can dispose of wars and politics. Battles will be won and lost, deals will be made and broken. Unless there is unusually brilliant or unusually atrocious individuals in power, the results of these things even out over time. Likewise, we cannot expect any meaningful change to the terrain in only 40 years. The Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountains will still be there, and the people will still be Muslim. The physical and human terrain of Afghanistan mean that the largest industries in Afghanistan will be natural resource extraction. In 2050 Afghanistan will be a natural resource exporting satellite of China. To the extent that U.S. strategy accounts for this fact, there will be less mayhem. To the extent it does not, there will be more. But absent unusually good or unusually atrocious leadership, this outcome is inevitable. |
| Posted by:Anguper Hupomosing9418 |
| #2 I agree about the article's confusing jargon, I filtered some of it out. What India has to say about Afghanistan matters little as long as Pakistan is in the way. Afghanistan borders only on Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Unfortunately US carriers can't sail off the Afghan coast like they can off the Korean, etc. coasts. Geography & economics matter. it was just over a century ago when Kafiristan was conquered Kafiristan became Nuristan. Since 1979, Wahhabis & their like have taken over, the music & dance once favored by the Kafirs is seldom seen in their old country any more. Why is Afghanistan and its people fated to "still be muslim"? Probably because the two real pillars of Islam are, "NOBODY leaves this religion alive" and "NOBODY who attempts to convert a Muslim will be allowed to live." I don't see much of a chance for Islam to become peaceful unless those who advocate jihad and death for apostates are themselves systematically killed by other Muslims. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-08-10 18:53 |
| #1 Didn't bother reading the whole article - too small print and confusing jargon - but a few things jump out. 1 - Why should it be a chinese satellite? Says who? Forget the US, what does India say to this, or what may become the secular government of Iran, among others. 2 - IIRC, it was just over a century ago when Kafiristan was conquered. Why is Afghanistan and its people fated to "still be muslim"? In 30 years if the christian liberation armies of South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya have conquered chunks of the middle east, wouldn't they want to divert attention from their proxies in the coptic liberation front by sponsoring liberation movements in various central asian regions? Just sayin.... |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2010-08-10 16:06 |