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| Iraq | |
| Baghdad Wrangling Rattles Iran Ties | |
| 2010-10-06 | |
| As Iraqi politicians wrangle through a seventh month of government-formation talks, an unexpected casualty is emerging: Iranian influence over the country's fractured Shiite groups. Before inconclusive March parliamentary polls, Iran had pushed Iraq's Shiite leaders to rally under one umbrella coalition to preserve a sect-based majority in parliament, as they did in the previous elections in 2005, according to several Iraqi politicians. When this failed, Tehran urged Shiites to reunite, post-elections, in an ad hoc coalition backing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a conservative Shiite. Iran appeared to have scored a big victory on Friday when the Iran-based firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr did an about-face and told lawmakers in his movement to endorse Mr. Maliki, giving the incumbent prime minister a big leg up in trying to form a new government. That move, however, spurred the defection of other prominent Shiites, including Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq party, or ISCI. Mr. Hakim is traditionally seen as closer than Mr. Sadr to Iran's political orbit. After Mr. Sadr's announcement, Mr. Hakim — a member of a clerical and political dynasty cultivated in Iran — sent representatives to meet with the camp of Mr. Maliki's top rival for the premiership, Ayad Allawi. Mr. Allawi is a former prime minister, a secular Shiite and leader of a bloc with significant Sunni presence. Last week, Mr. Allawi accused Iran of working to block his prospects for the job. Mr. Hakim and his deputies also met with U.S. officials, who had been quietly pushing a unity government between Messrs. Allawi and Maliki to dilute the influence of radicals such as Mr. Sadr. Mr. Hakim controls fewer seats than Mr. Sadr, so his defection from Mr. Maliki isn't numerically significant. But he is seen as an important pillar in Iraq's traditional Shiite political leadership, one that other partners Mr. Maliki needs, most crucially the Kurds, insist be represented in the next government. According to several politicians, talks are under way to assemble a possible coalition between Mr. Allawi, Mr. Hakim and others to woo the Kurds, who have emerged as kingmakers. Mr. Maliki won 89 seats in the March polls, edged out by Mr. Allawi's 91. With Mr. Sadr's 40 parliamentary seats, and the tentative backing of a handful of other Shiite lawmakers, Mr. Maliki is roughly 30 seats short of the majority in the 325-seat parliament. Both sides are courting the Kurds, who control 57 seats. That courtship, too, could be determined by the strength — or weakness — of Iranian influence. Kurdish support is contingent upon Baghdad making major concessions over oil and disputed internal boundaries to the semiautonomous Kurdistan region, governed by the Kurdistan Regional Government.
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