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| Home Front: Politix |
| Odds on GOP winning House, not Senate |
| 2010-10-26 |
| It's official: A week before the midterm elections, odds are that Republicans will win control of the House but Democrats will keep control of the Senate, according to the overseas bookmakers taking bets on this sort of thing. I guess we'll know for sure next week... Ireland-based Paddy Power says Republicans are "hot favorites" at 1-33 odds to capture the lower chamber, though they are not favored to win the Senate, with bettors getting odds of 11-4 against it. Ken Robertson, communications manager for Paddy Power, said Republicans had the edge in the Senate until July, when Democrats' momentum pushed them to become the odds-on favorite at 2-9, meaning a bettor placing a $9 wager stands to win just $2 if Democrats keep the 50 seats needed to control the upper house. If the election bears out those predictions, it will be the first time since World War II that the House flipped control without the Senate also changing hands. But political prognosticators in the U.S. say that's increasingly looking likely, with the Republicans riding voter anger to capture at least 39 seats needed in the House, but having a tougher time in the Senate. "It is mathematically possible for the GOP to score a net gain of 10 seats, but it is a very difficult proposition, practically speaking," the Cook Political Report said late last week. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #8 ...within the margin of FIFY, they're already on the job. Amazing how many of these errors always favor one party. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2010-10-26 21:12 |
| #7 Humm.... come on baby... a little more an a flyer is due. |
| Posted by: Zombie Hillary Lover 2010-10-26 20:27 |
| #6 Well, lets see: RCP has 4 seats in the R column and 7 toss ups. Those toss ups are: CA: Boxer (D) CO: Bennet (D) IL: Open (D) NV: Reid (D) PA: Open (D) WA: Murray (D) WV: Open (D) Of these, the best prospects are CO, IL, NV, PA and WV. Polls show the R's ahead in these races, though generally within the margin of error. But, assuming things continue as they have been, that gets us to 50 seats. Control would have to come from winning CA, WA (very close) or pulling off an upset in either CT or DE. Another way of looking at it is that we would have to win 6 of 7 races listed as too close to call. Hard, but not impossible in a big wave year. In fact, there generally *are* surprises in a wave year. Of course, control of the Senate means very little if Murkowski is reelected. If you want a different result, then you have to send different people. Also, from a strategy standpoint, just 51 seats puts us in charge, but no stronger than our weakest members (Collins, Snowe, Graham, McCain, etc). So on one side we have Bammo blasting us every chance he gets, and on the other side we have our own people unwilling to repeal ObamaCare, rein in the EPA, cut spending, lower taxes, etc. Not a great scenario. Better to focus on getting the right people elected (e.g. Miller in Alaska) this time around, and control in 2012. Leaving the Dems in charge of the Senate gives us a great deal of buffer when Bammo attacks "Congress". Then, in 2012, we can move to 55+ seats which is enough to neutralize our "moderate" friends and do the heavy lifting of rolling back socialism. |
| Posted by: Iblis 2010-10-26 16:22 |
| #5 Sounds more to me that the "Odds Makers" are trying to shift the odds a bit by lying, to get a better return on their bets. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2010-10-26 14:26 |
| #4 I'm not so sure the "toss-ups are not still up for grabs for Senate seats. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2010-10-26 10:33 |
| #3 There just aren't enough Democrat seats up for election right now. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2010-10-26 03:33 |
| #2 It would also be nice if they graded each candidate on probability of winning along with where they fell in the political spectrum. Maybe even where they stood on important individual issues such as where they stand on Obamacare, guns, abortion, spending, debt/deficits, size of government, pork, sleaze factor, etc.. It would let us know which shade of purple to expect, and which shade we got after the dust settled. |
| Posted by: gorb 2010-10-26 01:30 |
| #1 Real Clear Politics Map for Senate Real Clear Politics Map for House |
| Posted by: Water Modem 2010-10-26 00:57 |