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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| North Korea believes it has nuclear deterrence, attacks will continue |
| 2010-12-10 |
| There is a real possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula. The cause is not a second North Korean invasion of the South like in June 1950, which was successfully deterred by U.S. and South Korean forces. The danger stems from two combustible trends: A North Korea which mistakenly believes it is invulnerable to retaliation due to its nascent nuclear capabilities, and a South Korea that feels increasingly compelled to react with military force to the string of ever more brash provocations like the artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island. The shelling of Yeongpyeong had for South Korea much broader effects than the partial evacuation of its 1,600 residents. It forced a temporary closure of Incheon International Airport, the sprawling ultramodern hub of air traffic throughout Asia that stands only 122 km from the shelled island. The artillery flew only days after world leaders converged on Seoul for the G20 summit, undoubtedly causing world leaders to think twice about the next trip given the unpredictability of the North. These periodic crises undercut South Korea's future bids to host global mega events like the World Cup or the Winter Olympics. The Norks are greatly enjoying making the South lose face like this. Obviously this is a huge thing in any Asian culture. Norks feel aggrieved that their earlier provocations were defeated, and that these attacks are just revenge. The fact that they instigated the incidents is lost on any shame culture. President Lee Myung-bak is forced to respond with calm and measured actions every time the North provokes. The pat responses to the island shelling and the sinking of the Cheonan -- of enhanced military readiness, exercises with the U.S., and diplomatic sanctions -- do not work. The reality is that Pyongyang's provocations are getting more deadly, and that Seoul's strengths are its vulnerabilities: The more affluent, educated, and cosmopolitan South is far more wedded to the peaceful status quo than its northern neighbor, and therefore is forced to tolerate provocations even if they kill soldiers or civilians. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il sees this vulnerability and will continue to exploit it to extort concessions from the U.S. and South Korea. This is a losing strategic spiral for the South. It will soon feel compelled to break it. |
| Posted by:gromky |
| #8 * CHOSUN ILBO > ACT NOW, REPENT LATER, DEFENSE CHIEF TELLS [frontline] OFFICERS, iff NOKOR attacks again. AKA "SHOOT FIRST, ASK/EXPLAIN LATER" = new ROK Defense Big Boss says US-ROK ROES does not prevent the ROK from specifically finding + specifically destroying Any + All Sources of DPRK MilStrikes into the South. * BHARAT RAKSHAK > [Times of India] COMMUNIST CHINA ON A MOSQUES-BUILDING SPREE. China's 20.0Milyuhn Muslim minority increasingly are moving to coastal areas for jobs + livelihood, hence are DEMANDING MORE MUSLIM-CENTRIC REQUIREMENTS E.G. DEDIC PLACES OF WORSHIP = MOSQUES, GREATER AVAILABILITY OF SPECIAL ISLAMIC FOODS, + DEDIC ISLAMIC GRAVEYARDS, ETC. FROM LOCAL COMMIE CPC AUTHORITIES. IOW, "CREEPING SHARIA" in China. versus * CHOSUN ILBO > LOW BIRTHRATES, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY THREATEN KOREA'S WELLNESS. Also, IIRC ROK'S NATIONAL TERRITORY > has expanded SIX PERCENT since the end of the First Korean War. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2010-12-11 00:02 |
| #7 the facilities to manufacture ammunition no longer exist, and would have to be built from scratch. During the second world war, Procter & Gamble turned some of their factory lines from filling Tide detergent boxes to filling artillery shells... or whatever it is that gunpowder is poured into. It's apparently not a difficult change-over, although I'm sure the guys on the line did a serious clean-out at the beginning and end. ;-) |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2010-12-10 18:54 |
| #6 #5 Moose, is there anyone left who can manufacture a 16 inch gun or would you take them off of the Iowa, Wisconsin and New Jersey? Posted by: rwv Actually, any really decent industrial machine shop can turn out a 16" cannon, and SKor has a number of companies that could manufacture them. While we haven't built one for 30 years, the capability is still there. There are also several dozen stored here and there, dating back to the 1950's and 1960's. The problem is ammunition - the facilities to manufacture ammunition no longer exist, and would have to be built from scratch. Again, both the US and SKor could do so in a pinch. It would be easier to design a warhead for the MLRS the Koreans already have that could take out the NKor artillery. Again, the capability exists, only the will to do so is lacking. A few more attacks from the North, and the will will be there. Also, I think Japan must be getting really edgy about what's happening in the North, and may pass a few amendments to their pacifist constitution in the very near future. Little Kim may come to hate his father for the trouble he's brought upon the North. |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2010-12-10 17:14 |
| #5 Moose, is there anyone left who can manufacture a 16 inch gun or would you take them off of the Iowa, Wisconsin and New Jersey? |
| Posted by: rwv 2010-12-10 15:18 |
| #4 The use of the word "deterrence" implies the attendant responsibility. I guess they haven't figured that out yet. I'm sure Iran will, though. Right? |
| Posted by: gorb 2010-12-10 10:09 |
| #3 The South should build several million DVD players with an non-removable DVD, long life rechargable battery and screen. They should be drone dropped over all the artillery positions. The DVD should contain videos on a day in the life of a ROK NCO and his family, a day in the life of a mid-level officer and his family, how to navigate the Seoul mall and a pitch from the President of South Korea offering them a comparable position in the ROK Army if they refuse to shell the South. And a package of really good food. Then cut their lines of communications with Pyongyang and re-establish the DMZ about 40+ miles north of its present position. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2010-12-10 09:14 |
| #2 Since the Nork threat to attack Seoul with artillery is their primary menace, it should also be what the South plans to defeat. This would be with devastating counterbattery fire. Since the northern tubes are emplaced in rock, a typical artillery response will likely take too long. So what the South could do is the unexpected. I would suggest putting up some fake buildings that contain 16" naval guns. These munitions are so powerful that they could take out more than one of these rock emplaced Nork guns with a single round, as well as neutralize one or two more. Because they would know their target's locations, their rate of fire would be as soon as they loaded and adjusted. At a couple million dollars a pop, plus the fake building and maintenance, it would very cost effective bang for the buck. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2010-12-10 06:43 |
| #1 "Trying to kick the remaining US forces out" > AGREE. iff only in principle. IMO SEOUL = TOKYO = THEY WANT THEIR OWN NUKES even iff their Politicos wanna keep it hush-hush vee local mainstream for a while. OTOH FREEREPUBLIC > POSSIBLE IRANIAN MILITARY MOVE ... IN THIS HEMISPHERE [Iran setting up LR missle bases in Venezuela]??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2010-12-10 00:50 |