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| Economy |
| Hiding a Depression: How the US Government Does it |
| 2011-01-04 |
| Hat tip Gates of Vienna The real US unemployment rate is not 9.8% but between 25% and 30%. That is a depression level of job losses - so why doesn't it look like a depression for many people? How can so large of a statistical discrepancy exist, and how is it that holiday shopping malls are so crowded in a depression? The true devastation is hidden by essentially placing the job losses inside three different "boxes": the official unemployment box, the true full unemployment box, and most importantly, the staggering and persistent private sector job loss box that has been temporarily covered over by a fantastic level of governmental deficit spending. The "recovering and out of the recession" cover story is only plausible when nobody connects the dots and adds all the boxes together. We will add together the three boxes herein - using US government statistics for all three - and convincingly show that the US economy is in far worse condition than what is presented by the government or by the mainstream media. No, we have not emerged from "recession" and there will be no "double dip" - because the first "dip" was straight down to a depression-level economy in 2008/2009, and we haven't come back up. Creating artificial "free money" on a massive scale that artificially boosts short-term employment is how you segment depression level unemployment into the separate boxes and hide what is really happening. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #5 The truth hurts and is not welcomed by the electorate. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-01-04 17:19 |
| #4 REAL GDP = GDP - Increase in Debt. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2011-01-04 13:19 |
| #3 I think, like the WikiLeaks "revelations", it's a matter of paying attention. There have been reports for two years of people doing one of several things when the unemployment money runs out: o retire early (supposedly lots of that happening, leading to predictions that Social Security will run out of money considerably sooner than predicted) o go on Welfare (the social security net for the poor) o get a job in the underground economy o live off their savings, including emptying retirement accounts (supposedly lots of this happening, a terrifying prospect for their grandchildren, did they but know it) o move in with parents or children (leading to more empty houses |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2011-01-04 11:59 |
| #2 This is a bit unfair. The BLS puts out alternative measures of labor underutilization. It has done so for many years, including during the Clinton and Bush Administration. During the Bush Administration, the U-6 (the traditional U-3 Unemployed + part time + discouraged + marginally attached) rate got to 10% (it is about 17% now). By and large the media didn't make a big deal of the U-6 rate back in Clinton and Bush days and reported the U-3 rate (which briefly got to 6%). The Govt isn't hiding anything. Yes, the media is generally leftist and will scream "Jobless recovery" during republican administrations while saying "steady but slow growth" during democratic ones but that's the media, not the govt. |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2011-01-04 11:14 |
| #1 There are plenty of ways to hid it. Here are some methods the Australian government does it. Transfer people from unemployment to sickness or disability, if a husband or wife works disallow the other to register and job training programs. Then there are also plenty of people studying who would rather work. Plenty on early retirement too. |
| Posted by: BernardZ 2011-01-04 08:21 |