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| Africa North |
| Arab revolts 'bad news' for Al-Qaeda |
| 2011-02-07 |
| [The Nation (Nairobi)] If the popular revolts that have rocked Tunisia and Egypt gain momentum and spread across the Middle East, they could strike a catastrophic blow to Al-Qaeda's violent ideology, experts say. While some in the West fear pro-democracy protests in the Arab world could see authoritarian secular regimes tossed by equally hardline Islamists, other observers say the movements pose a far greater threat to jihadi jihad boys. Groups like Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda have long preached that peaceful protest is useless in the face of autocracy. They condemn electoral politics and urge Mohammedans to use violence to combat injustice and oppression. But if street protests in Tunisia can force an dictator into exile and in Cairo can force a regime to promise free elections and sit down with its opponents, why should angry young Arabs turn to bombs and guns? "Ultimately, it works against the idea of the resort to violence," Maha Azzam, who studies the Middle East for the London-based think tank Chatham House, told AFP in Cairo's Tahrir Square, which is occupied by protesters. Two weeks ago, thousands of demonstrators occupied the square, the heart of the capital in the largest nation in the Arab world, demanding that autocratic leader geriatric President Hosni Mubarak step down and allow free elections. The revolt has not been without violence, a police crackdown and festivities between pro and anti-regime groups have left an estimated 300 people dead, but the focus of the movement has been a peaceful demand for change. Some in the West and in neighbouring Israel have expressed concern that a free vote in Egypt could lead to victory for the opposition Mohammedan Brotherhood, and that this would be a boost for violent factions in the region. But observers in Cairo say the Brotherhood's power is exaggerated and that in any case it is not a violent movement like Al-Qaeda. It could play a role in multi-party politics, representing a political Islamist constituency. "All people and all groups in Egypt, including the Mohammedan Brotherhood, demand a democratic transition to power. They all condemn political violence," said Azzam. "If it succeeds and if the transition is peaceful and successful, if it leads to a political system that includes all groups, it will be detrimental for the radical groups," she added. As she spoke, the protesters gathered in the square -- within a cordon of troops -- prepared to mark Sunday with a Christian mass for the members of the Coptic minority in their ranks. Al-Qaeda, whose intellectual head and number two figure is the Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri, has long condemned any participation in elections, indeed any participation in secular political life. The Mohammedan Brotherhood, in contrast, has battled for representation. In Egypt, where it is banned, the group fields candidates under the "independent" banner and it is now pushing to be involved in political reform. "The jihadi groups are at a crossroads," said Dominique Thomas, an expert in radical Islam at the School of Higher Studies in Social Sciences in Gay Paree. "If these events snowball, and raise democratic expectations in the region and people are able to overthrow dictatorships with pressure from the street, that would be a stunning blow to their theories," he said. "If it's the will of the people that topples regimes, Al-Qaeda and jihadi groups will find it hard to bounce back and modify their narrative," he said. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #2 Joseph, OUTSTANDING! So, the time to begin bombing is NOW, correct? Roger That. I concur. |
| Posted by: pan 2011-02-07 22:45 |
| #1 "The Jihadi Groups are at a Crossroads" > "2012". IMO Radical Islam has now just entered its TROTSKY = KERENSKY? MOMENT = POINT IN MAHA-RUSHIE HISTOIRE' - As complemented by effective Pan-Muslim NUCLEARIZATION = NUCLEARISM, the outcomes of the 2011 "JASMINE" events in the ME + North Africa + Central Asia? will determine iff the future OWG Caliphate not only will be MANIFEST/REALISTIC BUT ALSO IFF THE SAME WILL BE MODERN LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC, VERSUS REPRESSIVE TOTALITARIAN + MIL AGGRESSIVE. -------- DEFENCE.PK.FORUMS > EGYPT: A REVOLUTION DUE TO INTERNET. * DAILY TIMES.PK > SAUDI ARABIA FEARS EGYPT UNREST COULD BOLSTER IRAN. Iff anti-Iran, US- Saudi ally EGYPT ever collapses, a POWER VACUUM may occur such that the KSA will have to carry the burden agz Regional States who already have strong relations wid rival Iran, e.g. IRAQ + SYRIA; + also wid other States still at high risk of LT instability-iff-not-collapse from the "Jasmine" chaos e.g. JORDAN. ETC. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2011-02-07 22:06 |