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Europe
Greek credit rating downgraded
2011-03-08
[Al Jazeera] Greece has had its credit rating dropped by three notches, sparking strong condemnation from the debt-hit nation.

Moody's Investor Services downgraded its rating to B1 from Ba1 on Monday, and warned it may cut the rating again if the government's commitment to austerity fades.

Greece was saved from bankruptcy last May after accepting a $154bn bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF), on the condition that Athens imposed strict austerity measures.

Moody's said the Greek government's economic programme may not reduce debt and spark growth, and said there would be more difficult conditions when the bailout package ends in 2013.

"The risk of a post-2013 restructuring might lead the Greek authorities and investors to participate in a voluntary distressed exchange before that time,'' the agency said in a statement.

Monday's downgrade sent a ripple of concern around credit markets, raising the price of insuring Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt against default and the risk premium on holding Greek bonds rather than benchmark German bunds.

The Greek goverment swiftly condemned the move, saying the downgrade was "completely unjustified" and "does not reflect an objective and balanced assessment" of the country's economic prospects.

"Ultimately, Moody's downgrading of Greece's debt reveals more about the misaligned incentives and the lack of accountability of credit rating agencies than the genuine state or prospects of the Greek economy,'' the finance ministry said.

It said that credit rating agencies had downgraded struggling countries like Greece heavily in past months in an attempt to make up for failing to predict the financial and debt crises.

"Having completely missed the build-up of risk that led to the global financial crisis in 2008, the rating agencies are now competing with each other to be the first to identify risks that will lead to the next crisis,'' the ministry said.

Greek national debt is still to exceed 150 per cent of GDP this year, while the economy is forecast to contract three per cent in 2011 as a whole.

Credit ratings agencies have been criticised in recent years for having presented a too-rosy view of the global economy in the run-up to the financial crisis, which led to the deepest recession since World War II.
Posted by:Fred

#8  ION WAFF > POSTER THREAD = IIUC proudly opined that NO WAY WILL THE US-NATO-EU ALLOW GREECE TO COLLAPSE BECAUSE GREECE, DESPITE ITS SEVERE ECON TRUBLES [including POOR CREDIT RATINGS + MUSLIM/ FOREIGN IMMIGRATION], IS NOW THE US-NATO-EU'S INDISPENDABLE MILITARY FORT IN THE "WILD WILD WEST/INJUN COUNTRY" KNOWN AS JASMINE-TROUBLED ARAB MIDDLE EAST + PERSIAN GULF = SE EUROPE + MEDITERRANEAN REGIONS.

The Vanguard + Bulwark between Europe + Arab-Muslim barbarian hordes, espec WILY DASTARDLY,
HELEN-STEALING TROY/TROJAN, USED-TO-BE-GREEK/GRECIAN, YOU-CALL-THAT-A-BIKINI-BABE-CALENDAR MUSLIM TURKEY [Greece-vs-Turkey Mil Forum Boyz].
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2011-03-09 00:07  

#7  BP, not sure what you mean by ~0. Are you saying that Basel II changed the reserve requirement to $0? That would certainly be a problem, but, that seems to be about the same as the model to market shift which lowered the value of the reserve (collateral).

The credit being driven below (way) risk was a factor of the Fannie/Freddy guarantee (wink, wink) that the gov't would insure all those bad loans aka no risk to the lender.
Posted by: AlanC   2011-03-08 15:54  

#6  The US Federal government is 4 years behind Greece and will reach Greece's current public debt of 145% of GDP in 2015. Sooner if state and local debt in included.
Posted by: Gloluse B. Hayes9343   2011-03-08 14:19  

#5  AlanC,

No. It's really straightforward. There was far too much credit.

Why? Basel2 regulated lower reserves to ~0 (first move of Basel 3 was to reverse this) 1/reserve = System Credit.

Too much credit drove down yields to below the risk, and thus bankruptcy was inevitable.

At the moment there's lots of noise and smoke (and bailing out the politically connected at taxpayers expense) until things are allowed to correct.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2011-03-08 13:49  

#4  Several years ago I read an essay on the credit crash that blamed, primarily, 3 things:

1) The CRA which opened the floodgates on bogus gov't insured mortgages (all in the NAME of helping the poor)
2) BASEL II - which moved accounting of the worth of assets from a mark to model basis to a mark to market method. This "vanished" billions in assets that had been used as collateral for loans. When the collateral "disappeared" the loans were called.

3) Most relevant to this, the credit rating agencies kept hanging AAA ratings on worthless derivatives etc.; then pulled the plug. The key question is this: In the essay George Soros was mentioned as a major player in the credit rating debacle. Anyone else hear this?
Posted by: AlanC   2011-03-08 12:53  

#3  A rating of B1 is still too high. That means it's still in the middle of the pack. In reality, I wouldn't touch their debt for 10 cents on the dollar.
Posted by: Frozen Al   2011-03-08 12:47  

#2   Credit rating agencies played a big part in creating the current worldwide economic disaster by giving top credit ratings to utterly worthless paper.
Then deadbeats like Greece borrowed for all & then far more than they were good for.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418   2011-03-08 12:33  

#1  Wow, I didn't know that had a credit rating BELOW Greece!

Is Greece's credit rating like the Mendoza line in baseball?

Is our credit rating taking the same express elevator to the basement?
Posted by: Bill Clinton   2011-03-08 09:53  

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