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Terror Networks
Al Qaeda's New Video: A Message of Defeat
2011-06-10
The entire thing is worth reading, but here are the key graphs:
This means that this latest As-Sahab message merely echoes threats that have already existed for some time now, such as threats emanating from grassroots jihadists. The grassroots threat is real and must be guarded against, but it is not nearly as acute as the threat posed by other, more skillful terrorist actors. Grassroots operatives do not often possess good terrorist tradecraft, and their attacks tend to be poorly planned and executed and susceptible to discovery and disruption.

However, killing people is not difficult, and even amateurs can be deadly. As we examine these repeated pleas by al Qaeda for grassroots jihadists to conduct attacks in the West, and then consider the ease with which such attacks can be conducted -- evidenced by Hasan's actions at Fort Hood -- it raises an interesting question: Why haven't we seen more of these attacks?

In theory, these grassroots efforts are supposed to supplement the efforts of al Qaeda to attack the West. But in practice, al Qaeda and its franchise groups have been rendered transnationally impotent in large part by the counterterrorism efforts of the United States and its allies since 9/11. Jihadist groups been able to conduct attacks in the regions where they are based, but grassroots operatives have been forced to shoulder the bulk of the effort to attack the West. In fact, the only successful attacks conducted inside the United States since 9/11 have been conducted by grassroots operatives, and in any case, grassroots plots and attacks have been quite infrequent. Despite the ease of conducting such attacks, they have been nowhere near as common as jihadist leaders hoped -- and American security officials feared.

One reason for this paucity of attacks may be the jihadist message being sent. In earlier days, the message of Islamist militants like Abdullah Azzam was "Come, join the caravan." This message suggested that militants who answered the call would be trained, equipped and put into the field of battle under competent commanders. It was a message of strength and confidence -- and a message that stands in stark contrast to As-Sahab's current message of "Don't come and join us, it is too dangerous -- conduct attacks on your own instead." The very call to leaderless resistance is an admission of defeat and an indication that the jihadists might not be receiving the divine blessing they claim.
It should be noted that this is the same video in which young Adam Gadahn called for Muslims to buy machine guns at gun shows for mad American-killing gun sex.
Posted by:trailing wife

#1  [The message] was "Come, join the caravan." This message suggested that militants who answered the call would be trained, equipped and put into the field of battle under competent commanders.

Hard to get people excited about the new message "Come and die." It's also hard to find any leadership anymore. Getting vaporized by a drone missile just isn't so glamorous as the grand mythical jihad of yore. The price is getting higher.
Posted by: JohnQC   2011-06-10 19:11  

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