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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | ||||||||||||
| Assad supposedly loses his grip to hardliners | ||||||||||||
| 2011-06-18 | ||||||||||||
LONDON - President Bashar al-Assad is losing control to his hardline relatives, his forces are overstretched, his government is running out of money and the revolt against his rule is gathering support and funding.
The risks of a slide into sectarian war are significant, most Syria-watchers nonetheless say, believing Assad will fight to the end, and start to regionalize the conflict by inciting violence in Lebanon, Turkey and across the borders with Israel.
Yet each time the authorities go in hard to deal with one center of rebellion, other towns rise up.
"Our assessment is that the regime will fall," predicted the Damascus-based diplomat. "They have three to six months of actual military capabilities to sustain this, but they cannot keep a prolonged operation going indefinitely."
"We believe strongly that the regime has lost its legitimacy. It has no vision on how to get the country out of the crisis. The situation is deteriorating," Ghadban said. "We are certain this will reach a positive end like Tunisia and Egypt," he added. The international community, diplomats said, see a post-Assad era ideally facilitated by a military coup and several governments are encouraging Syrian generals to mutiny. "We are isolating him and his family. We're addressing military leaders and cabinet members to rise up. We're encouraging the generals to rise up," the diplomat said. "The key variable is the continuation of the momentum (of the revolt). We really believe there is no point of return."
One diplomat said Assad's cousin, the business tycoon Rami Makhlouf who is a hate figure for protesters, has recently deposited $1 billion at the central bank to stabilize the Syrian pound. "When they are no longer capable of paying the salaries of bureaucrats, the army, the police and their Alawite militia this crisis will balloon and bring about the collapse of the regime," the diplomat said. "This is a train wreck waiting to happen." Signs of stretched resources and fraying loyalties are already apparent. As protests started to spread, the authorities pulled out contingents of security and elite forces from the capital, which are now firefighting from Deraa in the south to Jisr al-Sughour in the north, the scene of heavy reprisals after the government this month claimed to have lost 120 dead to "armed gangs." But even so residents say there are demonstrations every weekend in Damascus and surrounding suburbs. The bloodshed in Jisr al Shugour was the result of splits in army ranks, diplomats say, an ominous sign for the Assads. "Around 50 soldiers and mid ranking officers defected and were supported by locals and the authorities sent a force to counter them and 120 were killed," said another Syria-based diplomat, dismissing government accounts this was the work of Salafi fundamentalists as propaganda. He and others point to the growing sophistication of the rebellion, which draws support from across society. "After three months this is not a poor man's uprising. There is significant financing from the Syrian business community and upper class. They give money for satellite phones, cameras, food, water and medical supplies," the resident diplomat said. "This is a broad-based movement that includes not only Syrian youth, but imams from mosques, businessmen, even former Baath party members."
Seale added: "Assad is not in charge. He is showing no leadership. He is depasse. They have really taken over."
Syrian oil sales, worth $7-8 million a day and which Monajed says go directly to fund the military, should be boycotted. Arab states must build a consensus against Assad by lobbying China and Russia for a Security Council resolution, he said.
Syria, they add, can make trouble in the region by trying to incite another war between Hezbollah and Israel. Recent demonstrations on the Israeli-Syrian frontier, which had been quiet for 38 years, were encouraged by Syrian authorities in an attempt to broaden the conflict. "The Syrians have their fingers in many pies. They have many levers to put pressure on their neighbors and create problems between Hezbollah and Israel, between Sunni and Shi'ites in Lebanon and the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and AKP (Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's party) in Turkey," the diplomat said. | ||||||||||||
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #4 President Assad is plainly overstretched. I'm surprised how quiet the Kurdish areas appear to be. Which indicates he doesn't have the resources to deal with them. Especially as they are likely better armed than the Sunnis. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2011-06-18 18:50 |
| #3 The Neo-Ottomans have a shot at the brass-ring here, just massing Turk forces on the border under the aegis of humanitarian good-deedery might be enough. |
| Posted by: Zombie Hillary Lover 2011-06-18 18:01 |
| #2 Asshard is one of about three or four in his little clique that run everything. Much of his funding is from Iran, and every penny of revenue they can squeeze out of the country goes as bribes to the army command and secret police. Except for the subsection of the Alawite that are his closest clan, he even starves the rest of them, so even they don't love him. His strategy right now seems to be to let the secret police control Damascus, and send the most loyal Alawite elite units in his army up north, to kill and brutalize village after village until they stop resisting. Then they will work their way south, doing the same. Right now, the others in his little clique would give him up in a minute if they thought they could preserve their own rear ends. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2011-06-18 16:27 |
| #1 might want to stir up the populace against Hezbollah and Iran, noting that their support is arming and aiding the killing of Syrian civilians. Would like to see some killing of Republican Guard and Hezbollah goons. Perhaps note that he's using Paleo thugs to suppress Syrians. Two can play these games |
| Posted by: Frank G 2011-06-18 16:15 |