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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia, Other Central Asian Nations Hold Exercise Against Iran Attack Scenario |
| 2011-09-28 |
| Sept. 9-26, the Russian army, joined by Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, deployed 12,000 troops in a huge combined military exercise code-named Center-2011, which simulated an Iranian attack on Caspian oil fields operated by American firms in reprisal for a US strike against Iranian nuclear sites. An article in Moskovskii Komsomolets addressed the question of the threat. The author argued that the exercise plannersÂ’ internal documents show that the part of the exercise conducted in Kazakhstan near Aktau and on the Caspian Sea was aimed at Iran. The exercise storyline was based on a hypothetical decision by IranÂ’s leadership to respond to an American airstrike by targeting oil fields in KazakhstanÂ’s Mangystau oblast that are operated by American corporations (especially Exxon-Mobil). The idea was that since Kazakhstan would not be able to single-handedly repel an Iranian attack, it would request assistance from Russia through CSTO (Collective Rapid Deployment Forces of the Central Asian Region) channels and together the armies would repel the Iranian land and sea attack. Of course, military and government officials in both countries have rejected the notion that Iran is the opponent in the exercise, sticking to the usual storyline that the opponent is fictitious and represents no specific country. Russian intelligence postulated an instantaneous Iranian reprisal for this strike and based the war game staged by Russian-led CSTO on this assumption. Military sources disclose that the forces taking part in the exercise were briefed for a two-stage scenario: Stage One: An naval attack on the Caspian Sea coast coming from the south (Iran). Stage Two: A large-scale air and ground attack from the south by 70 F-4 and F-5 fighter-bombers, namely, the bulk of Iran's air force, along with armored divisions, marine battalions and infantry brigades landing on the northern and eastern shores of the Caspian Sea. The Russian briefing conjectured that the Iranian offensive would single out the Kazakh oil field at Mangustan on the Caspian coast. Moscow clearly attached the highest importance to the exercise and extreme credibility to the hypothetical scenario. Russian chief of staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov personally commanded the drills and on Monday, Sept. 26, President Dmitry Medvedev toured the field commands and units. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #4 I wonder how many of the newest SAM batteries the Russians have protecting those oilfields now? The F-4 and F-5 are old enough, and with Iranian maintenance and parts supplies, badly maintained enough to NOT have any ECM capabilities anymore. |
| Posted by: Shieldwolf 2011-09-28 18:00 |
| #3 The Caspian sea is of great interest to the Russians. I am more inclined to believe "A second, and more publicly acknowledged, opponent for the exercise as a whole is “international radical Islamic terrorism.” Various parts of the overall exercise are designed to counter Islamist radicals seeking to overthrow various Central Asian governments. The concern here is clearly to prepare for the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014. Central Asian and Russian leaders fear that this withdrawal will be followed by a Taliban takeover and the spread of radical Islam into Central Asia, possibly with Iranian assistance. They hope to make sure that CSTO is prepared to counter any future moves of this type". Very rich resource area. Then the Turks on the Black sea side. "highest importance to the exercise and extreme credibility" sounds very direct and purposeful. Interesting which Asia governments were left out. |
| Posted by: Dale 2011-09-28 17:59 |
| #2 Oh, hell yeah. If the Russians put it on DVD, even if it was Region 5, I'd still buy it. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2011-09-28 17:18 |
| #1 Now that would be a major popcorn event! |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2011-09-28 15:55 |