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| Europe |
| If the doomsayers are right |
| 2011-11-15 |
| High officials have said that peace is not a foregone conclusion. I wonder what Europe will be doing 5 years from now. With armies drawn down so far, I don't see war--at least not right away. Certainly not full scale wars of the type we're used to seeing over there. Assume the gloomy outlook is correct, and that sometime in the not-too-distant future there will be riots killing foreign nationals, and counter riots, and demands for revenge against the thieves and killers. (From over here I don't see that degree of demonization yet. But I have to rely on reporters who speak the local languages--I've no clue what the man in the coffee-shop thinks.) Neighbors might go to war in the classical way again. But non-neighboring countries might go with different models--attacks in third countries or on the sea, rocket attacks from throw-aways, or borrow from the midEast model and use terror bombings. What would we expect to see on the road to classical war, given that the armies aren't that large yet? They'd be expanding the forces under cover, or arranging so they can expand quickly. Rifles and uniforms are cheap, experienced drill sergeants a little less so, trucks and depots and artillery and aircraft still less--is anybody trying to buy back stuff they sold to third world countries? They'd start collecting dual use vehicles, and rehabbing boats as mine sweepers, and hiring vets from other countries. Governments might start trying to be best pals with Turkey and Russia. Greece vs Germany wouldn't be much of a contest unless Greece had a powerful ally. (Hmm. Probably wouldn't be Turkey...) The shape of trade wars will depend on how things settle out from the breakdown, and I can't make a decent stab at guessing that, and suspect that very few could. I'll keep my eyes peeled. We have enough of our own troubles here. Mexico is coming apart at the seams already. The breakdown will be demagogue fertilizer all over; I could easily foresee states offering to secede. Texas isn't Germany, nor California Greece, but there are enough parallels to shape the same kind of conflict. |
| Posted by:Omomoque Theck3986 |
| #7 Cyprus... |
| Posted by: Water Modem 2011-11-15 21:48 |
| #6 Turkey having gone Islamist, it could make a move against Greece or Cyprus. It has already issued vague threats about exploitation of newly discovered natural gas deposit. South Cyrus belongs to the EU. That would draw Europe in. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-11-15 15:50 |
| #5 I see the trouble beginning in the Balkans as well as the usual suspects realize that nobody is going to stop them. I see troubles in Western Europe being along the lines of riots and increasingly sever anti-riot actions that might result in forced emigration. You might also see little actions like the Cod War where one nation sends a destroyer or a flyover to make a point but Western Europe is unlikely to actually go to war against each other at this point. Turkey and Greece perhaps, but not Western Europe. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2011-11-15 15:08 |
| #4 If there is to be conflict in Europe, I can see several possible developing ways for it to happen. 1) As usual, bad stuff begins in the Balkans. The most likely scenario is again Muslim v. Christian. 2) Standing armies are too expensive, compared to mercenary companies. So conflict outside of the Balkans will begin as internal fights, beyond the ability of police to quell, so mercenaries are brought in. 3) Other minorities will likely get into the act, including Roma, Basques, and some others. Oddly enough, Spain could be partially fractured, because its regions want more federalism, and less Madrid centralism. Northern Italy is begging to leave Italy, as they are nothing like the rest of Italians. 4) France is way ahead of everyone else, because it still has an army, if decrepit, and mercenaries, the FFL, and nuclear weapons. It could also likely rebuild a conventional army rapidly, if needed. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2011-11-15 14:50 |
| #3 What would we expect to see on the road to classical war, given that the armies aren't that large yet? Pakistan is only held together by foreign aid, and is a nuclear power. Iran is suicidally jihadi and on the verge of getting nukes. And North Korea is, well, North Korea. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-11-15 13:51 |
| #2 What would we expect to see on the road to classical war, given that the armies aren't that large yet? Technically, I suspect the Swiss are in the best position for a modest increase to their borders. Not like they've ever done something like that before. Heh. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2011-11-15 12:38 |
| #1 Oops, that was me posting. Re-establishing... |
| Posted by: Korora 2011-11-15 11:31 |