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| Economy |
| Initial Jobless Claims Back Over 400K, Prior Revised Higher As 91% Of The Time |
| 2011-12-01 |
| Unexpectedly Reality once again creeps back in, confirming that the 4 sigma beats in the economic indicators pointed out yesterday were mostly duds, except of course for the drop in the Employment index in the Chicago PMI. After a few brief weeks with a 3 handle in initial claims, initial layoffs once again jumped over 400k, to 402,000 in the Thanksgiving shortened week. As is now par for the course of the data fudgers at the BLS, the previous number was revised higher as is 100% the case always now on a weekly basis, from 393K to 396K. As a reminder, last week's forecast had been for a 388K print, so the 5k miss certainly looked better than an 8k, or 60% higher miss. |
| Posted by:Beavis |
| #5 "The chances that this is an accident is 0." "The inflation figures are similarly massaged." In other words, THEY LIE. Incessantly. |
| Posted by: Barbara 2011-12-01 14:30 |
| #4 Yep. There are reports of a 3-4 week backlog. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2011-12-01 12:59 |
| #3 I think one of the reasons the 'next week adjustment' has been up lately (and this has been true for quite a while, not just 2011)is because of reporting problems in California. The unemployment rate there has been over 11% for some time and the various offices processing claims have been overwhelmed. |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2011-12-01 10:13 |
| #2 The inflation figures are similarly massaged. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2011-12-01 09:36 |
| #1 The scary part of this article is that Continued Claims are revised upward 100% of the time. The chances of that this is an accident is 0. |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2011-12-01 09:23 |