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China-Japan-Koreas
North Korea military has an edge over South, but wouldn't win a war, study finds
2012-01-05
The referenced article reports on a study which concludes that due to the nork's position and number of offensive weapons, Pugsley would have the initial advantage in an all out war.

My two cents is that it would depend; If the US acted preemptively by using its Air Force to deliver thousands of GBU-39s to seal the caves in the crescent above Soul that shelter the artillery and rocket launchers then this initial advantage would be nullified. Secondly, I wonder how fast China and Russia would be to resupply Pugsley's regime? Doing so would draw some pretty sharp lines.

Pugsley would have to calculate Obama's resolve. IMHO, letting the Norks hammer the RoK would not be a good reelection strategy.
Posted by:Mike Ramsey

#9  The DPRK's "edge" is the sociopolitical/cultural importance of Seoul to the ROK = identity of the SOKOR People, + counting on Beijing to deter or defeat any US-ROK/Allied mil crossing of the DMZ into North Korea during war.

As per WMF + other MILBLOGS, Pyongyang's + ROK's common prob now is to see iff China = 2012 CPC Plenum will begin treating or viewing the DPRK as a de facto CHINESE PROVINCE, albeit quietly or informally at first.

IOW, DEPENDING ON HOW THE 2012 CPC PLENUM DECIDES, NORTH KOREA'S TIME AS A "SOVEREIGN" KOREAN NATION-STATE MAY SLOWLY BUT SURELY BE COMING TO AN END - CHINA'S DOMINATION + CONTROL MAY BECOME PERMANENT + ABSOLUTE IN COMING YEARS, NO LONGER "PARTIAL" OR SUBJECTIVE???

The US + International Community must expect major changes like this iff Rising China fails to procure overseas PLA Milbases vee the "First Island Chain".

IIRC e.g. CHINESE PRESIDENT HU JINTAO [paraph] >
THIS WEEK > proclaimed that THE US-WEST ARE CONTINUING IN THEIR STRATEGIC EFFORTS TO ISOLATE + DESTABILIZE CHINA, e.g. espec as per efforts to push Western Culture-Influence upon Chinese Society.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2012-01-05 20:24  

#8  Like hell, the first drive McDonalds across the border will hold up an entire North Korean armor column as it winds its way around the drive-through
Posted by: Tamir Pardo   2012-01-05 18:01  

#7  IIRC it took the Norks about 3 days to get to Seoul the first time, circa 1950. Today, that entire area is jammed with population and infrastructure, urban sprawl. That initial punch will have to fight through terrain that is not conducive to 'blitzkrieg'. Not to mention the amount of loss of command and control as the Norks pause to loot each location they do occupy. Given that the Americans have been the only contemporary power to practice and perfect [as it were] city fighting, someone maybe guilty of the old game of counting tubes and bodies and ignoring other aspects of the operational environment.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2012-01-05 17:23  

#6  Just carpet bomb the place with sandwiches, the whole country would come to a stop as people rushed to get theirs.
Posted by: Secret Asian Man   2012-01-05 17:04  

#5  Should have pulled out of South Korea months ago and sat back and watched the show!
Posted by: Chaving Thud2382   2012-01-05 16:46  

#4  B-52s would play the big role after the B-2s cleared the way. We have lots more of those.
Posted by: gorb   2012-01-05 15:04  

#3  Anonymoose,
I like your thinking. Consider this: http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/20110425.aspx

The GBU-39 is the small diameter bomb. A B1B could carry 144. A B2, 216. That is a lot of cave mouths / air vents nullified.
Posted by: Mike Ramsey   2012-01-05 14:51  

#2  I realize that when one is in charge of defence one can't think that way, but still, what odds that a good deal of of North Korea's artillery is rusty or otherwise sub-optimal for actually shooting?
Posted by: trailing wife   2012-01-05 14:49  

#1  I like the idea of SKor quietly installing a few naval 16" turrets within fake buildings in Seoul, and training their underground crews for a rapid rate of fire on Nork artillery TRPs.

Because the Nork artillery positions are known, some computer simulations could give these guns the ability to take out one or two positions at a time, and incapacitate another one or two for minutes to hours.

I saw a video of a 16" splash on the side of a wide hill with four surface artillery positions in Lebanon. The 16" round picked up the side of that mountain and shook it real hard, knocking out all four positions.

While it wouldn't take out four emplaced positions, it would so rattle the chimes of those working the remaining functional ones that they would not be able to fire their guns for a long time.

And coordinating this with the normal 155 Howitzers, MLRS rockets, and aircraft attack, firing those Nork guns would truly stink on ice.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2012-01-05 14:12  

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