According to a report, around New Year's day officers in two Chinese air force units were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. At the same time, a nuclear submarine on patrol was ordered back to port because some on board were thought to have links with the plotters. This report, circulated on [January 8] on a China-watching listserv, remains unconfirmed. This rumor could be linked in some fashion to the detention last month of Colonel Tan Linshu, of the Chinese navy, for subversion.A coup at first glance seems inconceivable, but there has been an evident erosion in civilian control of the Chinese military in recent years. The most important manifestation of this breakdown is that colonels and flag officers have begun openly criticizing civilian leaders and are now speaking out on matters once considered the exclusive province of diplomats. Moreover, civilians have increasingly relied on troops of the People's Liberation Army and the semi-military People's Armed Police to maintain order.
It is, however, one thing to have a strong military and another to have a coup. At one time, the People's Republic was rife with coup rumors, especially when Lin Biao appeared to lead an unsuccessful attempt to unseat Mao Zedong in 1971. Since then, generals and admirals have given virtually no indication that they possessed grand political ambitions. Now, things look like they are changing. There have been too many reminders in the Chinese state media that "the Party controls the gun"--that the PLA reports to civilians--to think that this has not become an issue. So was there a coup attempt in China in the last two weeks? Even if there was not, talk of a military takeover indicates someone is trying to destabilize the regime.