Warning: Image may be photoshopped.Iran might pound Persian Gulf cities with ballistic missiles and use swift boats to attack American war ships in an attempt to dissuade a U.S. attack on its nuclear arms sites, a new report states.
I wonder how well swift boats would work against cluster bombs or a chain gun.
We can't use those: cluster bombs are a war crime and chain guns are un-Islamic...
Tehran likely would employ a mixed game plan against the U.S. military consisting of "advanced technology" and "guerilla tactics," according to a research organization with close ties to the Pentagon.
Guerilla tactics only work if we have boots on the ground, right?
Before that, Iran would first lean hard on weaker Middle Eastern nations to convince those states to deny Washington access to bases on their soil, it states.
And that only works if they fear you more than they love you.
Some of the report's grimmer scenarios predict Iranian ballistic missile launches on Gulf cities in an attempt to convince other nations to resist providing support to an American military operation.
I wonder how many missiles would be fired after the first few bunkers had been collapsed. I wonder how many missiles would miss their mark or be shot down. I wonder how many nations you can hold off at once, and for how many hours. I wonder if night vision equipment could pick out your commandos operating along your shores. I wonder if your submarines are visible to our satellites.
The report also forecasts efforts by Tehran to use Shiite Muslim "proxy groups" to attack U.S. allies in the region. Similar groups plagued the U.S.-led war effort in Iraq for years, and some officials and experts said some acted with Tehran's backing. [Cantor Presses for More Pressure on Iran.]
I wonder if your operatives would continue to operate after your government has been taken over by people. I wonder if their records containing your names will ever be found.
Anthony Cordesman, a Pentagon adviser, acknowledged Iranian officials might give some kind of support to extremist groups in a place like Yemen.
But he cast doubt on the likelihood that Iran would fire missiles at Gulf cities, or if its missiles would even work.
"Iran is much more likely to look at this and realize when you see this type of exchange, you ignore the fact that there are no rules as to how the U.S. and others would respond," said Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
What? Only the mad mullahs are allowed to come up with clever tactics and ignore the rules! That ain't fair!
An Iranian missile barrage on Gulf population centers, he said, could lead the United States and its allies to "take out their oil refineries."
Refineries? Does this imply that they have more than one? Oh man, load another bomb on the B-52!
"Then, their economy grinds to a halt," Cordesman said. "If Iran can't export [oil], it can't earn. And that creates critical problems for the regime."
And if someone else exports their oil for them, like China, well, that would be problematic, wouldn't it?
"Every time they escalate, they open themselves to attack on their own refineries, their own missile systems, and their navy and air force," Cordesman said.
And their turbans! Don't forget the turbans!
Iran also could use new weapons, like advanced ballistic missiles, to attack U.S. bases and other forces positioned around the Persian Gulf, wrote Mark Gunzinger, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, in the report.
Advanced ballistic missiles? Did they figure out how to put radar tracking on rocks or something?
"Iran's hybrid strategy would continue at sea, where its naval forces would engage in swarming 'hit-and-run' attacks using sophisticated guided munitions in the confined and crowded littorals of the Strait of Hormuz and possibly out into the Gulf of Oman," according to the report. "Iran could coordinate these attacks with salvos of anti-ship cruise missiles and swarms of unmanned aircraft launched either from the Iranian shore or from the islands guarding the entrance to the Persian Gulf."
Doesn't that sort of assume there is something left to do the coordination?
For those reasons, Pentagon officials would be wise to move U.S. forces and naval ships beyond the suspected range of Iran's arsenal, the report states. The U.S. also should steel its bases in the region to limit the damage Iranian missile strikes could do to those sites, while also inking deals for a series of "distant" sites from which military operations could be launched, the report states.
Wow, I'll bet they didn't think of that!
But Cordesman said there is little evidence to show Iranian missiles could reach American war ships. "Nobody has said Iran has successfully tested their long-range missiles, especially with these kind of warheads," he said.
Give them time. I'm sure it will happen all of a sudden.
Iran's growing arsenal of weapons also would require Defense Department brass to take a second look at the kinds of weapons it is buying, Gunzinger states. He calls for stealthy bombers that can evade Iranian radars and missile systems, drone aircraft that can operate off aircraft carriers, an amphibious troop vehicle "optimized for ground combat operations," among other new weapons.
Ground combat? NO! Just smack them and let the people take care of them. Air-drop AK-47s and ammo if you think they need it. Let the people take care of it.
"Achieving this within an increasingly constrained budget will require defense planners to make difficult decisions," Gunzinger writes, "the United States cannot meet the challenges that Iran could pose to its vital interests in the Gulf by simply spending more and adding new capabilities and capacity."
With most of Washington -- and the GOP presidential candidates -- debating whether the United States should use military force to halt Tehran's nuclear ambitions, the report paints one of the first sketches of how a U.S.-Iranian conflict might play out.
The Pentagon will need to change how it fights and what it buys -- even amid declining annual budgets -- to deal effectively with Iranian systems fielded in recent years, says CSBA. These weapons and supporting platforms are tailored to significantly hinder the U.S. military's ability to move freely within an enemy's territory -- including the air, at and under the sea, and increasingly in cyberspace.