[Yemen Post] The Yemen-based Abaad Centre for Studies and Researches has cautioned that some factions seek to collapse Yemeni cities militarily under the pretext of Al-Qaeda as happened in Radda and Abyan provinces scenarios."This scenario may be carried out in Ibb, Dhala'a, Lahj, and, Hadhramout and other cities would be controlled under the pretext of fighting Al-Qaeda as it is expected to happen in Dhamar, Taiz, and Hodeidah.
In a periodic report, Abaad pointed out that Al-Qaeda has no systematic structure and its goals are foggy, affirming that it lacks strategic visions.
| Ouch. Not a kind evaluation of the Bravest Lions of Islam... |
"There are figures affiliated to Al-Qaeda, some were in Abyan and others who escaped jails, are currently existed in Sana'a, and some Al-Qaeda fugitives live with the displaced people inside schools in Aden."
The report ruled out that Al-Qaeda has the ability to take over any town, if it does not receive direct and indirect logistic support by some sides that are in connection to the power transfer process.
"Al-Dhahab withdrew from Radda after he failed to recruit enough numbers to completely control the city as well as he got his main demand, release of his bother" the report added.
The periodic report revealed that Al-Dhahab was not the real leader of Al-Qaeda in Radda.
It further cited that Al-Qaeda senior leaders, Nasser Al-Wohaish, the leader of Al-Qaeda, and Ebrahim Darwish, another Al-Qaeda leader were at Alzahir district of Baidha governorate when Radda was taken over.
"Decisions were taken by Al-Qaeda Shura council consisted of 20 persons who are selected of 60 persons, the real division of Al-Qaeda which is called " Almuhajreen" which includes a Saudi and Pakistani nationals. Their duties were not external protection. Some Bedouins, tribesmen and other escapees joined Al-Qaeda in its fighting with the aim of getting money and others were contained as a result of Al-Dhahab's charisma in the area.
"While the real leader was not known in Radda, there was a field leader who is called Abu Hamza and another high-ranking leader called "Abu Hamam" , and they were considered the main decion-makers in Radda"
Abaad said that assassination incidents against officers and soldiers of the Political Security and other security services were clear-cut indicators of Al-Qaeda expansion.
"Before Al-Qaeda control on Radda, three of the Political Security officials were killed in Baidah, capital of the governorate, and Al-Qaeda was behind their assassination," the report added "One of these officers, Ahmed Samba was kidnapped and executed by Al-Qaeda in Abyan,"
"Security services believe that Al-Qaeda was behind killing of approximately 70 security officers including 20 ones affiliated to the Political Security. Most of them were killed in the eastern and Southern governorates in the period from January 2011 to January 2012. This number is 25 percent of all those officers and soldiers killed since the eruption of anti-regime protests."
The report affirmed that Al-Qaeda used the Yemeni political gap and the power transfer process to strengthen its control, pointing out that Saleh's regime directly or indirectly contributed in Al-Qaeda control on Abyan and Radda.
"As Al-Qaeda took over Al-Qaeda in Zinjibar in April 2011 and seized control on the Central Security camp without fighting, it was supposed that Major General Adel Al-Masri, nephew of the Interior Ministry, be investigated.
"However, Al-Masri was appointed as a security director of Radda a day after the signature of the GCC-brokered power transfer deal," the report added.
"After Almasri became the first security official in Rada, Al-Qaeda could seized control Radda at the same way it took over Zinjibar,"
"As a result of Al-Qaeda operations, some regional and international powers would move to Yemen's territorial water, particularly the United states,"
"Its military move is motivated by presidential elections race, particularly after it achieved victories in Afghanistan and Yemen as well as the success of its covert operations which led to the killing of Bin Laden and Anwar Al-Awlaki,"
"Pentagon said it deployed a large floating base to serve as a "mother ship" for commando teams to the Middle East as tensions rise with Iran, Al Qaeda in Yemen and Somali pirates, but the main goal was the implementation of an agreement with Taliban for which the American forces would leave Afghanistan in return for allowing Al-Qaeda leaders would exit Afghanistan with guarantees of not endangering their lives,"
"Because Iran is interested in getting Americans and Al-Qaeda out Afghanistan, so it would facilitate the mission," added the report.
"As for the US-Iranian competition at Bab-el-Mandeb strait, particularly after Tehran threatened to close Hormuz strait, the report said that Americans seek to secure Bab-el-Mandeb, and then expand to the east Africa, but they know that Iran's existence in the African Horn would make them accept share as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq" the report concluded.
It expected that Washington would support Turkey's efforts to decrease the ceiling of Iran's demands which start with the United States' suspension of its support to the Iranian opposition and ends with turning blind eyes to Iran's repression against Sunnis in Balochistan , Ahwaz and Kurdistan.
It also cited that Washington and Tehran would reach an agreement that put an end to bargaining, pointing out that the Gulf Cooperation Council states would have their roles in the agreement as they are considered the closest partners to the United States.
"Yemen could be included in bargaining and Iran may abandon its influence in the African Horn, Yemen, Syria , Bahrain, particularly if it felt that it is fragile from inside and that its "Guardianship of the Jurist" system faces collapse in conjunction with parliamentary elections and Arab spring revolutions" it added.
The report concluded that bargaining reveals that Al-Qaeda organization is used as a justification for regional and international race to took over region's resources.
It ultimately called the Yemeni Consensus government to set an emergency plan to deal with Al-Qaeda which includes economic reforms, political openness, debates and dialogues with all Yemeni forces including Al-Qaeda and the Houthi group.
"The government must take into consideration the military and security action as the last solution," the report said.