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| --Tech & Moderator Notes |
| Afghanistan Counterpoint: When We Go, How To Go? |
| 2012-02-26 |
| A Rantburg Opinion by trailing wife Keep the satellites and the drones in place. Watch the Taliban. I can find little to disagree with what Dr. Steve has to say, below, until that prescription.  He has laid out the situation squarely for our review.  That said, please go read his piece first; mine will make more sense afterward. The only point I would add is that while the government of Pakistan, such as it is, does not wish to be at war with us, and while Pakistan's Army of the Pure does not want us to think they are at war with us, the People of the Land of the Pure are mostly in full support of the hard jihad of the sword against the Crusaders and the Jews, and against the Hindus and the non-conformists who live down the street between times.  The few who openly disagree are very careful to write about it in English;  we've been reading their increasingly impassioned op-eds here at Rantburg for years, their cris de coeur for common sense, reason, and the rule of law instead of favours and bribes given and received by a religion-mad populace. Like the countries of the Arab Spring, bad as the rulers are, on average the people of Pakistan -- as a group noun -- are worse.  Once upon a time this was perhaps not so.  But the generations have been carefully taught, and have learnt even more on their own.  Pakistan once had Anglo-Indians and Jews, Ahmadis were as Muslim as Shiites and Sunnis, covered women were scorned as ignorant and old-fashioned. But then the land shed its English overcoat, and the worm emerged from its first molt.  There have been several more molts since then, and each time the worm has emerged larger and grosser, acquiring nuclear weapons and ever more jihadi groups that the ISI put to ever more specific purposes.  Meanwhile, out on the street a riot can be raised to lynch a man and destroy part of a city merely because he threw out a business card with the name of Muhammed on it, somehow profaning  the name of the holy prophet himself.  Because the thing is, Afghanistan is the place where the chess pieces of Pakistan play out only some of their moves.  The game -- continuing the Great Game of Britain, they fondly flatter themselves -- is half played and all plotted on the Pakistan side of the border.  Brave as the people of Afghanistan have been this past decade, with their new schools, new roads and wells and household biogas power plants, new East Point officers for their new army, the border provinces of Afghanistan stand against the need for jihad of all of Pakistan.  Even much of the leadership of the Afghan Taliban are comfortably ensconced in Pakistan -- in Quetta, if I recall correctly. It is not merely a bedraggled remnant we leave behind when we pull out of Afghanistan, to keep close watch on from a distance.  It is the Pakistani worm, somewhat reduced to be sure, but with the full-throated faith of the people in their war of choice, quietly supported by Saudi money as well as Taliban opium, that we have been fighting.  They are not so reduced that we can safely watch from above against future outbreaks, trusting that our shadows will have a deterrent effect. So now to my counter proposal: I can agree to pulling out the main body of troops.  They aren't being allowed to do their work, and have become targets of opportunity for every posturing boob in the region.  BUT, I believe we should keep satellites, armed drones, and the ghosts of the night in place, killing off as many Taliban, Haqqani, Hizb-ut-Tahrir and everyone else associated with jihad on both sides of the border as we can. I want it to be bred into the DNA of the Pashtuns and Punjabis -- and by example to the rest of the Ummah -- that to act on the hard jihad of the sword is to die. Anything less, in my ignorant and sheltered opinion, will lead to an explosion of jihad upward from Pakistan to Afghanistan to the world, like an antibiotic resistant desease once the threshold of infectious cases is crossed. I am not a soldier. I do not treat the wounded. I am not aware of having any relatives actively involved in the fight. Those who are or do may well be justifiably angered that I would put them further at risk, and I cannot defend myself against the charge. I have no answer except that I believe the drive to violent jihad cannot be contained; it must be eradicated, like smallpox or polio or all the diseases that spring back into life as soon as enough people stop inoculating their children. Our current president appears unconcerned about such issues, I realize.  And our senior generals and admirals and such do not appear to have succeeded in convincing him otherwise.  Nor has the new head of the CIA, the much-lauded General Petraeus, Ret'd, though the CIA appears to be doing a very nice job indeed of reducing the number of bad guys on both sides of the Af-Pak border.  As, apparently, are the ghosts in the night, while all attention is on our brave troops  attempting to be hammer and anvil, ink spots, and whatever other concepts the strategists come up with while having two hands and one foot tied behind their backs by whoever it is that makes such decisions far from the scene of the action. Soon, I hope, we will have a new president.  And backing him, both Houses of Congress with Republican majorities beholden to the Tea parties, who understand what is at stake, and understand that extending an open hand to such people is a good way to get your arm cut off at the neck. |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #10 I am forced to conclude that your way will win out, Dr. Steve, at least until we have a new president. George W. Bush surprised everyone after 9/11, though his best was not nearly as good as we would have liked, in the end. So there is hope for hidden depths in his Republican successors. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2012-02-26 23:55 |
| #9 You are right, Dr. Steve. The leadership crisis is the main existential threat we have in this country. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2012-02-26 20:00 |
| #8 AP, if we had a bipartisan leadership that could do that, and get the American people behind them, I'd go for it in a New York minute. I don't see that leadership in Washington in either party right now. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2012-02-26 19:45 |
| #7 Excellent and informative points, TW. Excising the tumor is a must wherever they are found--and I mean not just in Afg-Pak. Track and hunt them down in a covert war and keep following all tangents until the web is dismantled worldwide. I am so glad Petraus is at CIA but we need allies--and keep them guessing who is on board the Orient Express. "Do unto evildoers before they do unto you" is about the only way to deal with WMD blackmail by Iran, Syria, or any of their proxies with all the defense cuts. |
| Posted by: Omoluque Hapsburg8162 2012-02-26 18:44 |
| #6 When we did not act decisively, with overwhelming force in the beginning of this sad affair after 9-11, we won battles but we lost the war. We put our finest men and women in harm's way without the overwhelming support of the Congress, and in many ways, the American people. I am sure that many Rantburgers have read that watershed work, "On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society" by Lt. Col.Dave Grossman. There is the potential of a severe psychological and physical price on sending your troops into battle. Leaders had better have the plan squared away before they put our finest in harm's way. There is a high price to pay, for even a "good" war. But we have been fighting our battles with one hand tied behind our back of our own choosing. We had originally gone into Afghanistan to deny the enemy a training ground and base of operations for terrorist attacks against the United States. Then we got into nation building, then we continued playing footsie with Pakistan, who were the enablers of the whole thing, except for one omission, and that was that the Saudis were providing much of the funds for Pakistan. They financed and are financing thousands of madrases, where Jihadi Bots are developed from an early age. And so it goes on. We still pay Pakistan billions to screw us. We never went after Saudi Arabia with their record of supporting Wahhabi and Jihadi enterprises. Why did we not do something about that??? It is because enough people in key leadership positions were bought off by Saudi money. Too many of our leaders have sold this country out. That is what has happened and why it really hurts. Af-Pak should have been resolved and completed in a year or less with overwhelming force. A lesson to all potential aggressors. We have spent 10 years mucking about there and have poured personnel and treasure into a rathole. So what do we do from here?
We do have some allies. We need to lead by example. We have to clean our own house. WASHINGTON, DC is the biggest threat to our constitutional republic. It is a huge den of parasites and self serving individuals. It needs to be cleaned up constitutionally or the rot will kill us just like what happened to Rome. I hope that we can do it. It's going to be down to the wire. Actually, it is not an impossible task, but it just needs true leadership. And THAT is what is lacking now. As far as Petraeus goes in the CIA, I believe that he and others are trying to hold things together to outlast the O administration's efforts in destroying our institutions. Like I said, it will be down to the wire. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2012-02-26 18:21 |
| #5 Amen. You don't get thought-provoking stuff like this at the mainstream rags. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2012-02-26 14:27 |
| #4 Both you TW and White did a great job on your pieces. |
| Posted by: newc 2012-02-26 13:09 |
| #3 Pity the USA chopped up all those B-52s. We're gonna need them. |
| Posted by: Shimble Guelph5793 2012-02-26 12:49 |
| #2 All they must do now is leave us in peace They already don't leave us in peace, Dr. Steve. How many arrests have been reported in Rantburg in the last year or so? In the last six months? David Headly comes to mind... Based in Chicago, he scouted out the Mumbai attack and was putting together something in Sweden or Norway when he was picked up. Ties to the ISI and Lashkar-I-Taiba, if I recall, and that Kashmiri fellow. Watching with satellites from above would have done nothing to stop him. Didn't do anything, actually. He flew under the radar until we started tracing things backward after the Mumbai massacre. Of course this administration loves drone zaps. Cutting edge cool video games, with a great big boom to fill the screen at the end. And the bad guys hate them: there you are, minding your own business and doing your bad guy thing when you suddenly realize you and your friends have just kissed a missile you didn't even realize was on its way. They don't want to die, no matter how much they blither on about the joys of martyrdom and the further disgusting joys of their Paradise to follow. If they really wanted to die, human waves of suicides would have overwhelmed all unbelievers everywhere a thousand years ago, continuing until today without pause for breath. Instead, they have to brainwash the emotionally fragile, isolate them, dose them repeatedly with drugs, and even then ride herd in them until the moment of impact to ensure they don't change their minds, And then there's this. It's not Afghanistan, but it's of a piece. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2012-02-26 12:18 |
| #1 I can't argue well against your prescription, TW, except to note that our current administration and indeed, our current political class, has not the stones to make it work. In a modestly better America our administration would ensure that the special forces had what they needed to carry out such a mission, including support at home and clear, concise rules of engagement. But they do not and will not, and hence asking them to stay in Afghanistan to go after the Taliban simply puts them at risk. Is it any reason why our current administration is so in love with drone-zaps? It is precisely because it is so Terminator-like; you push a button and a man dies. It is (to use a word) clinical. It is like chess; no one in Washington has soiled hands. That is not the kind of operation that will succeed long-term. At this point I do not care if the people of Afghanistan live in the tenth century, AD or BC. I used to care but the Afghanis clearly prefer their clans, tribes and moon-god. So be it. All they must do now is leave us in peace. Don't kill Americans; don't let their country be used to kill Americans. We should maintain an overwatch and a warning: if we have to come back, it won't be pretty. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2012-02-26 11:37 |