In judgements that cut across a growing international consensus, experts at London's leading defence think-tank said yesterday that, in their view, there would be no Israeli -- or US -- attack on Iran before the end of the year.| What would we do without experts? Especially experts in London who know nothing about what's going on in the Israeli government right now... |
John Chipman, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, was answering questions after the institute's presentation of its annual flagship assessment of global military capabilities, "The Military Balance". In describing the prospect of an early military attack on Iran as "unlikely", Dr Chipman appeared to contradict a recent statement from the US Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta, but also a warning just the previous day from the Prime Minister to MPs to the effect that Iran wanted to build an intercontinental nuclear missile that could pose a direct threat to London. Mr Cameron was speaking after a briefing from the Government's national security adviser, Sir Kim Darroch.
Dr Chipman based his less alarmist view on a deal he said had been done between President Obama and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, according to which Israel would agree not to attack Iran, so long as the US gave an assurance that it would not exclude military action to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon. Mr Netanyahu "got that assurance," Mr Chipman said, during his recent visit to Washington.