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| Africa North | |
| 'Suleiman's election could trigger nationwide revolt' | |
| 2012-04-09 | |
... Now former Vice president of Egypt. From 1993 until his appointment to that office in 2011 he was Minister without Portfolio and Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate (EGID)... 's entry into race 'an insult to the revolution'. A bid for power by Hosni Mubarak ...The former President-for-Life of Egypt, dumped by popular demand in early 2011... 's former intelligence chief is an insult to Egypt's revolution that, if successful, would trigger a second nationwide revolt, the Moslem Brüderbund's candidate for Egypt's presidency said.  In his first public comments since being nominated by the Brotherhood on March 31, Khairat al-Shater played down fears of a clash between the powerful Islamist movement and the army generals who have ruled Egypt since Mubarak was ousted last year. But he warned the Brotherhood would not back a $3.2 billion emergency IMF loan requested by the army-backed government unless the terms are changed or the government steps down and lets a new administration oversee how the funds are spent.  In an interview with Rooters on Sunday, the 61-year-old millionaire businessman denounced former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman's eleventh-hour decision to seek his former boss's job. Mubarak made Suleiman vice president just before losing power.  "I consider his entry an insult to the revolution and the Egyptian people," Shater said. "Omar Suleiman has made a big mistake. He will only win through forgery and, if this happens, the revolution will kick off again."  Shater, who stepped down as Brotherhood deputy leader to run for the presidency, said the decision was motivated by fear that the army-backed government was failing to cooperate with the Brotherhood-dominated parliament and the movement needed an executive post in case the assembly lacked teeth. But he said a clash with the military - backbone of national security - must be avoided.  "Even if there are issues with the military council's handling of the transitional period, such issues must be resolved in a way that does not lead to a real clash with the armed forces," he said. "We must, in fact, work to strengthen and develop the army."  The government began negotiating the loan with the International Monetary Fund in January to help it avert a balance of payments crisis. The IMF has said broad political support in Egypt is a pre-requisite for the loan deal and the Brotherhood has yet to provide its backing. The government now says the talks might not conclude before June.  "We told them (the government), you have two choices. Either postpone this issue of borrowing and come up with any other way of dealing with it without our approval, or speed up the formation of a government," Shater said.  The Brotherhood could also accept a loan if the size of the initial disbursement is reduced so that most of the funds are paid out after a new government takes power following the completion of a presidential vote in June, he added. | |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #7 Ah. I forgot to think about the police and the secret police as being as much tools as the army proper. Thank you for explaining, Zhang Fei. I'm not referring to the secret police. What keeps Assad standing is that he has full access - although somewhat attenuated by the disruptive effects of an insurgency - to the financial resources of the Republic of Syria. The power of the purse is a serious weapon, and it is the primary reason why most rebellions fail - the ruling power can feed and arm its troops whereas the rebels are living hand-to-mouth. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 18:13 |
| #6 The regime in power has access to the full resources of the state Ah. I forgot to think about the police and the secret police as being as much tools as the army proper. Thank you for explaining, Zhang Fei. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2012-04-09 15:55 |
| #5 The thing about the Egyotian army, as I understand it, is that the ranks are filled with draftees, in for two years. The officers and NCOs are professionals, but can one fight an Algerian-style civil war when a good portion of the force is both unskilled and untrustworthy? The regime in power has access to the full resources of the state, however meager they may be. Rebel movements generally don't have that. The Gulf states are extremely unhappy that Mubarak was deposed, and will spend what they need to keep Mubarak's confederates standing. Short of a NATO intervention on behalf of the Islamists, I can't see how they would be able to stand against the repressive machinery of the military. As Barry Rubin noted, Mubarak's fall consisted of a coup by military officials who concluded that he was simultaneously too sick to rule and too much of a lightning rod. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 12:41 |
| #4 The thing about the Egyotian army, as I understand it, is that the ranks are filled with draftees, in for two years. The officers and NCOs are professionals, but can one fight an Algerian-style civil war when a good portion of the force is both unskilled and untrustworthy? |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2012-04-09 11:35 |
| #3 At the same time, it has to be said that numbers alone do not ensure the success of a revolt. Algeria, which elected an Islamist majority to office, and then had its military government rescind the elections, was successful in squashing the Islamist revolt that ensued. The masses might have their convictions, but the military does have most of the guns and the training to use them. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 10:44 |
| #2 A revolt might transpire. A perennial problem for revolt-minded individuals is not knowing the breadth of support for their cause. Anyone who risks his life in such an endeavor wants to know that he's not merely throwing it away for a hopeless cause. The 75% of votes cast for Islamist parties in Egypt assures Islamists that they have tens of millions of fellow travelers - enough to give the military a run for its money. And that is what will sustain any Islamist rebellion - the knowledge that there are more of them than any other combination of factions, by a factor of 3. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2012-04-09 10:39 |
| #1 On the plus side, he'll know how to deal with such "nationwide revolt". |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2012-04-09 10:38 |