... who no longer exists...
the Al Qaeda that carried out the Sept. 11 attacks is essentially gone but its affiliates remain a threat to America, U.S. counterterrorist officials say.
The situation's similar to the end of World War II: Europe (the world, in fact) was still crawling with fascists and Nazis, but they weren't a major threat anymore. The literature of the time still featured evil Nazi villains, but the real world news had moved on to other things.
Core Al Qaeda's new leader, Ayman al-
Zawahiri,... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as
the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is...
still aspires to attack the U.S., but his Pakistan-based group is scrambling to survive, under fire from CIA drone zaps and lying low for fear of another U.S. raid. That has lessened the threat of another complex attack like a nuclear dirty bomb or a biological weapon, the officials say.
This is probably the spot to note that the Paks still wax indignant over the drone zaps, even though they are theoretically to the benefit of the Paks. North Wazoo is way outside the control of Islamabad, though they still maintain liaison with the Qaeda-allied groups, including Jalaluddin Haqqani's little empire, various Pak Taliban groups, and the remnants of TNSM. Sami ul-Haq's Darul Uloom Haqqania madrassa, in Akora Khattak, turns out a thousand "Islamic scholars" a year. Mullah Sandwich is, of course, known as "the Father of the Taliban" and the madrassa is the "Harvard of the Taliban movement." Sami is unmolested and in fact revered in Pakistain, even having sat in the senate for a few years. He probably needed two chairs to accommodate the size of his ego.
Al Qaeda's loyal offshoots are still dangerous, especially Yemen's Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP.
Some are, some aren't.
Al-Qaeda in Britain appears to be defunct, as does al-Q in Europe. We occasionally hear of an al-Q in Turkey kaboom, but the Grand Turk seems diligent about rounding them up and letting them see how they like being in a Turkish prison.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq died when Zarqawi got his. The level of violence has been dropping since he was stuffed and mounted, and the Iraqis are now capable of rounding up the Islamic remnants. They won't become a threat to the state unless the state starts to collapse.
Jemaah Islamiya, in southeast Asia, is similarly not quite defunct but getting there. Abu Sayyaf is reduced to being little more than bandidos, which is what they started out as, and the Pentagon Gang doesn't seem to be with us anymore.
JMB and HuJI in Bangladesh are also goners. Keep in mind that Bangla is a tangle of corruption and personality politics. All it takes to control terrorism is
- to keep terrorism enablers like Jamaat-e-Islami out of the government and
- a certain degree of ruthlessness.
Qaeda in North Africa seems to have been mostly run out of Algeria, never got a toehold in Libya or Morocco, and hasn't even done well in Mauritania. The best they've been able to do recently is link up with the Tauregs and capture Timbuktoo from Mali, which is one of those things where you'd be surprised if they couldn't do it.
The Ethiopians are in Somalia, kicking Islamic butt for the second time. The Islamic Courts have been broken up -- the only guy they had who seemed to have any sense is now president of Somalia, while al-Shabaab, which was a mere murderous faction, is being forced out by the Aethiops, the AU, and domestic Islamist but not Qaeda groups. The turbans are now trying to take over Puntland, which will probably be a lot harder than they expect.
Boko Haram is on the rise in Nigeria and it presents a major threat that I don't think the Nigerian government quite comprehends. They're already picked up on two important facts: it's sponsored and financed by Nigerian politicians for domestic political ends, which is sure recipe for having your monster eat you at some point in the future; and there is significant foreign involvement. At some point they will either get serious and start rounding up holy men, or they'll have another civil war that will make Biafra look like... ummm... jello wrestling.
While not yet able to carry out complex attacks inside the U.S.,
... which was the whole idea behind the War on Terror...
such groups are capable of hitting Western targets overseas
... and always will be. It doesn't take much in the way of hardware of training to commit an act of terror. Witness Breivik, the Norwegian anti-Islamist nutbag.
and are building armies and expertise while plotting violence,
The "armies" are infinitesimal. Every time they pop up, except for Pakistain and possibly Timbuktoo, they get chopped to pieces. Usually it's by the local government, sometimes by Aethiops. Even in Yemen, which is a failed state by any definition except perhaps (and only perhaps) the one current in Sana'a, they're getting chopped up. They had to get rid of Saleh, and now they're getting rid of Saleh's minions, but they're hitting back in the south, and last we saw they were in the process of retaking Zinjibar. Like the maggots they are, al-Q thrives on decay and corruption. Once an even remotely competent government is in place they revert to being nothing but nuisances, if occasionally fatal nuisances.
according to senior U.S. counterterrorist officials who briefed reporters Friday. "Each will seek opportunities to strike Western interests in its operating area, but each group will have different intent and ability to execute those plans," said Robert Cardillo, a deputy director at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
That's kind of a plain vanilla statement of the obvious. I wonder why they call it Fox "News"?
The shift from a single, deadly group to a more amorphous threat may not seem much of an improvement.
If you're being attacked by a horde of screaming Huns and General Aetius shows up with his legions to break the horde into smaller, digestible groups, your situation's improved. If you're foolish enough not to follow up and finish the job, and maybe even have Aetius bumped off, then failure's your own damned fault.
But the U.S. believes that the bin Laden raid and continued U.S. counterterrorist action have reduced the chance of a sophisticated, multipronged attack on the U.S. like the attacks of Sept. 11 or the deadly bombings in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005.
The threat's "reduced" only because they're in the past. Young fellows who think turbans are neat continue running off to Pakistain to buy curly-toed slippers and to learn how to blow things up. It does not take a lot of money or a lot of training to commit an act of terror, especially when the agent is considered expendable. Every major act of terrorism in at least the past five years and maybe ten (I haven't checked in detail) has had at least one Pak involved at the controller level. The willingness to expend human life to achieve relatively minor ends is a hallmark of al-Q, and especially of Pak-based al-Q. Their level of respect for human life would make Fu Manchu blanch. Even Thulsa Doom would come down with the vapors.
An attack with weapons of mass destruction -- chemical, biological or nuclear -- by any Al Qaeda-related terror group also seems less likely in the coming year, Cardillo said.
... unless they can fit them into a boom jacket...
Al Qaeda's Zawahiri has not managed to harness multiple groups into a cohesive force focused on a single, catastrophic attack, officials said. Al Qaeda's key affiliates in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and North Africa have pledged allegiance to Zawahri but, unimpressed with his leadership, "have not offered the deference they gave bin Laden," Cardillo said. Zawahri has a reputation as an abrasive manager and a less than charismatic speaker.
He's argumentative and dogmatic, but he's also likely to have people he disagrees with blown up. His own end could very likely be at the hands of an indignant Mehsud whose second cousin's car blew up after an argument with Screech.
That loss of a single, charismatic voice likely means "multiple voices will provide inspiration for the movement," leading to a bout of soul-searching as to what the splinter groups want to target and why, Cardillo said. "There will be a vigorous debate about local versus global jihad within and among terror organizations," he said.
The charismatic leaders will also be the guys who get that clenchy feeling between their shoulder blades whenever they hear a jet aircraft.
Another potentially positive sign is Al Qaeda's failure to hijack the Arab Spring revolt in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya. On the negative side, the officials said, Al Qaeda is working hard to co-opt rebels in Syria.
Thre's been considerable alarm taken over the success of the Moslem Brüautderbund and al-Islah in the new Arab Spring governments. Since I don't have to live under their rule I'm considerably more sanguine. They're the cowpox to the al-Qaeda smallpox. The same people who are Islamist today were Nasserites or socialists fifty or sixty years ago, fascists 75 years ago, or Baathists at any time within that span. We're looking at a society where people follow the guy who has all the answers. The MB will now be given the chance to show their stuff, which will mean another thirty or forty years of oppression, just oppression that's of a different flavor than the oppression of the uniformed dictators they've been living under. There'll be another "Arab Spring" at some point in the future (I'll be dead by then) and the MB will be replaced by some other bunch that has all the answers. And so on for another thirty or forty or even fifty years.
If the political wrangling in any of the post-revolt nations fails to produce stable, responsive governments, Al Qaeda and its ilk may be able to seize the void, the officials said.
But they'll only be significantly successful if the governments collapse completely, as in the case of Yemen, Somalia, or northern Mali. Or if there's government connivance, as in the case of Pakistain.
That's what has occurred in Yemen, where AQAP has taken full advantage of the local government's preoccupation fighting multiple political opponents.
- Top of the list was getting rid of Saleh and then making sure he continues to be gotten rid of. The Thing That Wouldn't Leave assumed that because Hadi had been his vice president he would simply become the power behind the throne. Hadi's turned out to be more independent minded than expected, and the power behind the throne thing hasn't been working as well as expected.
- Second on the list is AQAP, which Saleh also seems to have tried to remote control.
- A close third behind them is the "legitimate" southern autonomy (or independence) movement. Yemen used to be divided into North and South Yemen, and the two weren't fond of each other. That was the "civil war" that put Saleh in the Seat of All Power in the first place.
- Fourth would be the Houthis in North Yemen. Iran plays the same part with them that AQAP plays with the "legitimate" southern autonomy guys.
- We can add in finally, not in actual fifth place but overlaying everything else, the competing tribal structures that are similar to those in Somalia or the Pashtunistan. Hadramaut, for instance, used to be a separate sultanate, not as big as Oman but nearly as independent. There are major linguistic and cultural differences...
AQAP has grown in size and territory covered despite constant and expanded targeting by Yemeni and U.S. counterterrorist forces, the officials said.
Actually they've waxed and waned. They were waxing when they hit the USS Cole in 2000, they waned post-9/11, to the point where the "Aden-Abyan Army" winked out of existence. Then they started waxing again when Saleh's troubles started and he needed something to threaten his opposition with and to try and round up support from the U.S. and the Brits. Now I think they're slowly starting to wane again as Hadi tries getting them under control and we keep dronezapping.
Another threat they cited: Homegrown extremists, either lone actors or small groups inspired by Al Qaeda, who remain intent on committing violence.
These are the nuisance guys that we'll never be rid of unless we start catching them on Monday, trying them on Tuesday, and hanging them on Wednesday.
The officials also noted that every time U.S. counterterrorist forces strike, they must take care to avoid everything from civilian casualties to hitting the wrong target, lest the blowback produce more enemies. "The key challenge will be balancing aggressive counterterrorism operations, with the risk of exacerbating the anti-Western global agenda" of Al Qaeda and its affiliates, Cardillo said.
Whether we kill innocent bystanders or not, the Urdu press and the Iran news agencies will report that we did. Green Helmet Guy and his analogs are still around. So I don't think unreasonable care is actually called for.