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| -Election 2012 | |
| Repealing Obamacare: What will it take to take back the Senate? | |
| 2012-07-02 | |
So I'm wondering if together we could crowdsource a list of the most important races where our donations of time or money might make the difference between living with this monstrosity and rolling it back. There are 33 Senate seats up for election this year (see list below): 21 currently held by Democrats, 11 by Republicans and 2 by Independents who lean center/left and hard/left respectively. That leaves 30 Democrats and 37 Republicans in place for the next 2-4 years. It takes 51 Senators to repeal a tax bill and 67 to repeal other legislation. Let's assume that the SCOTUS decision means the Dems agree to treat Obamacare as a tax. Let's also assume that we might not be able to get any Dem votes for repeal. (In practice, the former may be overly optimistic and the latter overly pessimistic.) At a minimum, then, conservatives who wish to repeal Obamacare most likely must defeat 4 Democrats, plus defeat additional Democrats in the event that one or more Republican seats are lost. So, Rantburgers, taking into account those who are not running for re-election or who were defeated in their primaries, a) Which Republican seats in the Senate are in danger of being lost this year? Here are the current Senators whose seats are competed this year:
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| #21 I'm ashamed to tell you I've sat on my skinny butt for 40 years when it comes to donating or working on a campaign. Well, I can't sit on the sidelines any longer - I signed up to work on Mandel's senatorial campaign. |
| Posted by: GORT 2012-07-02 22:49 |
| #20 By the way, anyone can help out by making phone calls from home on behalf of candidates. If you have generous long distance coverage you can call across your state or for another state's candidate; otherwise you can call locally. Just a thought .... |
| Posted by: lotp 2012-07-02 21:16 |
| #19 Fantastic input - thanks, keep 'em coming. Oh - and please consider giving a little time of your own, or money or both, to some of these candidates. |
| Posted by: lotp 2012-07-02 21:13 |
| #18 Yum. I do love seeing other people think out loud. Thank you, Al. :-) |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2012-07-02 20:37 |
| #17 I'm wondering if together we could crowdsource a list of the most important races where our donations of time or money might make the difference between living with this monstrosity and rolling it back. I took a look at Realclearpolitics and hear is my take: In General - RCP's numbers are too liberal. They give polls of adults the same weight as polls of likely voters. If you ignore all polls except those of likely voters and average then you'll get pretty good results. NV: Heller ahead by 5% R HOLD NM: True toss up. Wilson could use your help. ....Small state. A little money could mean alot. MT: Rehberg ahead by 6% R PICK UP ....Small state. A little money could mean alot. ND: True toss up. Berg could use your help. NE: Fischer ahead by 15% R PICK UP MO: Steelman ahead by 12% R PICK UP WI: Thompson ahead by 9% R PICK UP IN: True toss up. Mourdock could use your help. OH: True toss up. Mandel is R Candidate. FL: True toss up. Very volitile. Mack R Candidate VA: True toss up. Allen is R Candidate. MA: True toss up. Brown is R Candidate. So there you have it. 4 likely pick ups, 7 toss ups, 1 likely loss in Maine (to an independent). I hope this is usefull. Al |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2012-07-02 20:22 |
| #16 Here is the poll data for Josh Mandel (vs. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)), courtesy of Real Clear Politics. I really hope he wins (nice Jewish boy, volunteered as a fighting Marine after getting his law degree, doing a good job as Ohio treasurer, from what I hear, and to top it off, his family are prominent in democratic Jewish circles up Cleveland way -- I have my waspish moments, I am ashamed to admit), but it remains to be seen. Ohio is strongly union-Democrat up north, as it is strongly Republican down here in the southwest. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2012-07-02 18:54 |
| #15 I realy don't think you need to donate to Deb Fischer. She has a big lead over Kerry who has been labeled correctly as a east coast progressive which doesn't do well in Nebraska. |
| Posted by: bman 2012-07-02 16:09 |
| #14 Actually, I'm hoping that if the states issue warrants for treason for Roberts, at the very least we can drag him off the court. Public execution is too much to hope for. |
| Posted by: Silentbrick - Schlumberger Squishy Mud Division 2012-07-02 15:16 |
| #13 +1 for Hewitt's list. He's done the legwork for us and donations of time or money to the candidates on his list will likely be as impactful of the outcome of the actual election as anything else we could do. |
| Posted by: AzCat 2012-07-02 15:12 |
| #12 Plus, they should do articles of impeachment for Roberts. Amen! But you know the gutless worm won't do it. For so long now there's been no consequence of any kind for bad behavior. Time to hold all these people to their oath's with severe punishment for violations. Flaying and salting sounds good. |
| Posted by: Secret Asian Man 2012-07-02 14:44 |
| #11 A link to consider for possible donations and work, click here by Hugh Hewitt. [ED note -- this is a list put together by Hugh Hewitt, whom I happen to think is the best radio interviewer out there. Plus, he does interviews with folks running for Representative and finds those that really need help] You might want to check out his 12 picks for a starting place. |
| Posted by: Sherry 2012-07-02 11:45 |
| #10 Nice work Lotp. |
| Posted by: newc 2012-07-02 11:42 |
| #9 It's a good question, lotp, because the senate is going to be extremely important in the next few years. Sorry I don't have any good answers. Feinstein in California is a shoo in. Hopefully some Rantburgers can identify vulnerable Democrats in other states. |
| Posted by: Ebbang Uluque6305 2012-07-02 11:31 |
| #8 lopt, I am in a similar situation as far as funds go. I am sending money to Mandel in Ohio, and West in Florida. |
| Posted by: bman 2012-07-02 10:04 |
| #7 There are other, more divisive issues in play BP. As their party stands today, I simply cannot abide a democrat. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-07-02 09:41 |
| #6 If they passed it on reconciliation, which they did, it can be removed the same way. Plus, they should do articles of impeachment for Roberts. |
| Posted by: Silentbrick - Schlumberger Squishy Mud Division 2012-07-02 09:40 |
| #5 If you want to repeal obamacare it might be better to focus on those who will vote against it rather than merely voting republican and hoping they will vote against. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2012-07-02 09:30 |
| #4 I agree. However, I want to do more than just vote - I want to help influence others to vote our way too. I have limited funds and time to donate. Which races would be the best ones to invest that limited time and money in? Which R candidate/senator is most in need of shoring up, which D is most vulnerable to a well funded, energetic campaign to replace him/her? My hope is that you all will have insights beyond the basic campaign commentators to help focus my investment. I'm also hoping you all will decide to, and where to, invest yourselves. |
| Posted by: lotp 2012-07-02 08:33 |
| #3 Vote for as many Republicans as are offered and pray they are honest men and women who will do their best. Not given to frequent scriptural quotes, but in desperate times like these I sometimes revert. Paul says it very well in the small book of Tessalonisense, "keep away from every brother who is idle".... A brilliant young woman, gifted author, and I believe now former senior fellow in economic history at the Council on Foreign Relations by the name of Amity Shlaes puts it so very well in the book "The Forgotten Man". The essence of her 460 pages is basically the "New Deal" was a colossal failure. Unfortunately it has taken some 80 years for us to accomplish discovery. I am strongly encouraged by young thinkers like Shales, Rubio, Jindal, West, Bachmann, Rice, and others. There is hope. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-07-02 07:37 |
| #2 OK, what specifically do you recommend we do with regard to the Senate races, Besoeker? |
| Posted by: lotp 2012-07-02 05:09 |
| #1 "TO EVERY MAN there comes in his lifetime that special moment when he is physically tapped on the shoulder and offered the chance to do a very special thing, unique to him and fitted to his talent; what a tragedy if that moment finds him unprepared or unqualified for the work which would be his finest hour.” Those words spoken by Winston Churchill over 70 years ago are very appropriate today. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-07-02 02:24 |