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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Dear Lebanon: Stay Quiet Now, The IDF Ain't Messing Around
2012-07-06
IDF will 'destroy' any Lebanese village that fires rockets if war breaks out again

Six years since the start of the Second Leb War, Israeli officers say the region is thriving on both sides of the border but could spiral into a brutal war, fast

Israel will launch a brutal war against Leb if provoked by Hezbollah, senior Israel Defense Forces officers warned Thursday.

Though the northern border has remained mostly quiet since the end of the Second Leb War six years ago, Northern Command officers remain leery of hostilities breaking out again, especially as tensions with Iran remain high and Syria continues to spiral out of control.

"We will fight in a very aggressive way," said Brig. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the commander of the IDF's Galilee Division, charged with defending Israel's border with Leb. "Any village from which rockets are fired -- will be destroyed."

However,
corruption finds a dozen alibis for its evil deeds...
he acknowledged that another war would not be a cakewalk for Israeli troops or civilians.

"The next war will be different than the ones over the last 60 years. Civilians all over Israel will face a very tough war. There will be heavy fire on all the cities of Israel," he said.

Speaking from divisional headquarters, several hundred meters from the border with Leb and overlooking the village of Bint Jbel, where the last war's fiercest battles were fought, Halevi and other officers described both sides of the border as flourishing during the six years since the war. "For Leb it is the best period in the last 40 years," he said.

Israel's neighbor to the north, an inherently unstable country of mixed and often warring ethnic groups, is currently more stable than Egypt or Syria, he said. "The six years since the Second Leb War have been the quietest time in Leb in the last 40 years."

Halevi was atypically complimentary of the United Nations
...When talk is your weapon it's hard to make yourself heard over the sound of artillery...
Interim Force in Leb, saying that they were "doing a great job" and that Hezbollah "does not like their presence."

The peacekeeping troops were installed in southern Leb as part of the cease-fire agreement, UN Resolution 1701, that ended the Second Leb war in 2006.

The UN force, he said, continually tries to precisely mark the border with blue barrels and recently built a wall at Kafr Kila, preventing rock throwing between Israelis and Lebanese. "I hope one day we can take it down, but for now it is good fence that makes good neighbors," he said.

Yet UN Resolution 1701, he acknowledged, "is not enforced on Hezbollah."

The resolution, reached at the end of the war, bans all armed Hezbollah presence south of the Litani River and prohibits the import of all weapons to militia groups in Leb, among other things.

Officers in the command said they know of "thousands of homes" south of the Litani River where "one wall divides the kids' room with the toys and the missiles and rockets."

Though the border is relatively placid, things could spiral out of control quickly, according to Halevi. Hezbollah could get frustrated with its unsuccessful efforts abroad to exact Dire Revenge™ for its military commander Imad Mughniyeh's death and decide to carry out an attack on Israeli soil; it could "mistakenly try to find a solution to the situation in Syria," or it could serve "as an Iranian tool."

But any decision by Hezbollah to attack and trigger war, a senior officer in the Northern Command said, would bring about destruction "that will take a few decades for them to get over."

The officer also voiced concern over Syria's chemical weapons. "All I can say are the facts: Syria has many chemical weapons. Their officers have strong relations with Hezbollah officers. They have given Hezbollah many rockets. If they start to lose control, it will be that much easier for them to put their hands on those products."

The officer stopped short of saying such a transfer would be a cause for war, but did say "it would contribute to a rise in tension."
Posted by:trailing wife

#13  The statement, "Obama might start a war in Iran just to win re-election.", is not based on any reasoning. Responding to something ok, possibly. SteveS has it right, there is no electoral benefit to Obama to starting something.

It is just someone running their mouth without engaging their brain. Not uncommon, not relevant.
Posted by: rammer   2012-07-06 20:15  

#12  just soon-to-be-ex Governor Bev Purdue
Posted by: Frank G   2012-07-06 20:02  

#11  I don't see how The One could possibly push back elections for any war

I don't think anyone mentioned delaying the elections.
Posted by: Pappy   2012-07-06 17:30  

#10  What is the reasoning behind the statement, "Obama might start a war in Iran just to win re-election."

Is it the thought that we would all rise in patriotic fevor behind our fearless leader and rush to the polls to vote for him? Just because he stated a war?

I just don't understand the reasoning behind that statement.... particularly after reading comments here.

Posted by: Sherry   2012-07-06 15:53  

#9  I don't see how The One could possibly push back elections for any war. We held elections through the Civil War and also WWII.
Posted by: gorb   2012-07-06 15:15  

#8  The only way the administration would go to war with Iran is if they stumble into it.

Right now it's the Dance of the Seven Political Veils: moving mine countermeasure assets into the Gulf (in case the Iranians attempt to block the Straits), staging a specops platform (the USS Ponce), beefing up ground forces in Kuwait, and waging a multi-front diplomatic offensive.

The idea is to simultaneously charm/convince/pressure the mullahs, mollify Israel, and buy time, at least until November has passed, preferably longer.
Posted by: Pappy   2012-07-06 13:53  

#7  As for the Hisbullies and their partners in crime, they have been too clever by half. As long as they could score Jihad Points by launching rockets into the empty desert and taking pot shots at the occasional settler, they were golden.

But now they have better, more accurate weapons and can cause some real damage. The IDF cannot afford to let that happen, no matter how much weeping and hand-wringing the international community generates. If it happens, and by 'if' I mean 'when', the response will necessarily be savage.
Posted by: SteveS   2012-07-06 13:05  

#6  I hear that Obama may go to war with Iran, just to win re-election.

I rate this as No Chance in Hell. Obama's support comes from catering to his various individual constituencies - gay marriage, immigration, health care, unions, blame-Bush, etc. Even though they each have their own agenda, this would piss them all off collectively. Any support he would pick up from the Right would be swamped by massive disapproval on the Left.
Posted by: SteveS   2012-07-06 12:46  

#5  I hear that Obama may go to war with Iran, just to win re-election.

Might reduce his flexibility somewhat.

Otherwise I wouldn't put anything past him.
Posted by: Mullah Richard   2012-07-06 11:56  

#4  Question for Rantburg U -- I hear that Obama may go to war with Iran, just to win re-election. How is this true? What's the thoughts behind that thinking?

Thanks....
Posted by: Sherry   2012-07-06 10:34  

#3  No truck for any contry. Not Lebanon, not Syria, not Iran. No one there will get away with this again. ALL of this is to Israel. No more kid gloves.

Gush, Sinai, Lebanon, Syria, Golan. TOAST.

It's Danger Close right now.

First name last, Airborne.
Posted by: newc   2012-07-06 01:54  

#2  Also, we have a map.

If Israel must face the world, well, if it will be a war process forever, do not provoke the big one. And this is the big one.
Posted by: newc   2012-07-06 01:51  

#1  I have a feeling that any chem weapons used will result in the kinetic disappearance of the Syrian military by Israel.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2012-07-06 01:40  

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