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| Update and Analysis of Alps Murders - Rantburg Exclusive |
| 2012-09-17 |
| by Raider This is an in-depth analysis on Rantburg.com. The following analysis looks in more detail at the unusual series of murders that took place in the French Alps on the afternoon of Wednesday, Sep 5 (2012). As a few more details have trickled out about the killings, it is possible to start to piece together the "tactical jigsaw puzzle". ---------------- OVERVIEW: The crime occurred on a remote mountain road near the town of Chevaline in the French Alps. The murder scene was in a parking lot off a road ... the road itself is a dead-end street that leads to an overlook. Four adults were killed, one 7-year old girl was seriously injured, and one 4-year old girl was unhurt (but traumatized). Three of the dead adult victims were discovered inside a red BMW station wagon. Killed inside the BMW were: Saad al-Hilli (50) a British citizen originally from Iraq, his wife Iqbal (47) who was a dentist from Iraq, and his wife's mother who was a Swedish citizen. Al-Hilli's station wagon was parked at the back of a quiet parking lot, surrounded mostly by trees. All three adults had been shot at least 3 times, including two shots to the head for each victim. The victims were shot with a low-caliber pistol, probably a 32-cal or a 7.65 mm. That would imply that the murder weapon was probably a Walther-PP series handgun or a Tokarev. Quite possibly a silencer was used on this gun, since no people nearby reported any loud noises. Al-Hilli was in the drivers seat (dead). The two adult women were in the back seat (dead) and they apprently threw themselves over al-Hilli's 4-year old daughter Zeena who was still alive. The women did such a good job at concealing the young girl that she remained terrified - but undiscovered - for many hours after the crime was committed. Also involved in the attack was al-Hilli's older daughter Zainab (7) who was badly injured but not killed, and a cyclist who was shot dead. Zainab was found outside the family vehicle. She was shot once in the shoulder, then pistol whipped hard on the head - she collapsed on the asphalt in the parking lot. The cyclist was Sylvain Molliere (45) from Grenoble, France. Grenoble is about 25 miles from the crime scene. Molliere was a rider in a bicycle race taking place in the area. He was shot 5 times, then collapsed to the pavement. His body and his bicycle were nearby the vehicle. The crime scene was discovered by another British cyclist and reported to the police. The police found many shell casings from 32-cal ammunition near the BMW. The engine was still running, and the rear wheels were still spinning in the dirt when the British cyclist arrived (he turned off the ignition). Interviews with people in the area established that three suspicious vehicles had been seen recently: a white Peugeot driven by a man in a dark shirt which was seen speeding down the road away from the murder, a green 4x4 vehicle, and a motorcycle. COMMENTS: A variety of early theories emerged about this killing, including the possibility that it was a mafia hit, or a murder by an upset relative, or the work of robbers, or a strange case of espionage. However, police were puzzled as to why professional killers would leave shell casings at the scene - and not pick them up. In addition, no-one could explain why the daughters were not killed by the hit men. And finally, if this murder was associated with a clandestine meeting - why on earth did al-Hilli take his family to the rendezvous point? As deeper details were uncovered about the backgrounds of the people involved in the Alps incident - the plot became much more complicated. AL-HILLI was a mechanical engineer working for an aerospace company in Britain that did secret satellite work. The company produces satellite imagery for high-profile customers and various foreign governments. Al-Hilli and his wife lived in an expensive home, but his income may not be fully adequate to meet all his expenses. He had some private ventures going - but they showed low profits on the books. It has been reported that al-Hilli's bank accounts show large deposits that seem inconsistent with his normal work and projects. Al-Hilli was also known as an outspoken critic of Israeli policies and frequently voiced strong opinions on internet chat rooms. SYLVAIN MOLLIERE, the cyclist, also worked with confidential information. It has been reported that Mr Molliere was a metallurgist who specialized with nuclear technology. He had a deep understanding of the alloys and coatings needed to produce fuel rods in nuclear reactors. There appears to be no known relationship between al-Hilli and Molliere ... at least none that police have identified or made public at this time. The unusual backgrounds of these two individuals lead to two possible scenarios about the Alps murders - which I will elaborate. Leading scenarios revolve around espionage and the leaking of hi-tech secrets. The main difference between the two scenarios is simply ... which man was the primary target in this murder?? ------------ SCENARIO A: Under this scenario, al-Hilli was the primary target of the hit men and the cyclist Molliere was simply at the wrong place at the wrong time (although as it turns out, Molliere acted bravely). Since al-Hilli worked with secret satellite imagery, it is plausible that he may have used this access to sell information on the black market. Information is a commodity like everything else ... and it is most valuable when it is in high demand. Since the countries of Iran and Israel are currently locked in a military struggle, al-Hilli may have been selling sensitive information to the Iranians. The relationship is plausible because al-Hilli was a Shiite Muslim, and was strongly opposed to Israeli policies. Therefore he could have been approachable by Iranian agents. This kind of deal would be lucrative to al-Hilli, but if he was offered high-resolution satellite photographs of Israeli installations then this would put him at the top of "persona non grata" for Mossad. This is one speculation about motive. But it is also possible that al-Hilli was killed by an Iranian hit squad who feared that he would compromise their on-going espionage relationship. Finally, it is conceivable, though less likely, that al-Hilli was killed by some other competitor/customer in the information business, since satellite imagery can be very valuable for certain commercial activities. Scenario A: al-Hilli was probably under surveillance from the time he entered France. The hit men no doubt knew his itinerary, and the Alps would make a good place for a quiet kill. It is possible they looked for opportunities to kill al-Hilli as an individual (without his family), but could never get him separated from his family. So the decision was made to kill al-Hilli as a high-value target, and to kill all the adults to eliminate witnesses. On the day of the murder, it may have gone something like this. Al-Hilli decided to take a quiet drive with his family into the mountains. However, he was being shadowed by agents using a motorcycle and a 4x4 vehicle. During the drive al-Hilli's older daughter needed to make a restroom stop. So al-Hilli pulled off the road to let the child go and relieve herself. The hit men who were trailing al-Hilli recognized this location as an excellent kill zone. They needed only a motorcycle and a larger vehicle to do the job - the large vehicle would pin al-Hilli's car into the parking lot and the assassin on the motorcycle would kill the driver and passengers. Al-Hilli saw the danger coming at the last moment and attempted to reverse - but the BMW's rear wheels became stuck in a soft dirt embankment. The motorcycle rider began shooting the adults in a very calm and professional way (through the side windows, close range), starting with al-Hilli. Meanwhile the driver of the 4x4 vehicle had to get out of his car and chase down Zainab ... al-Hilli's older daughter. In the pursuit he fired his gun but only shot her in the shoulder. Then he pistol whipped her to the ground. Quite possibly Zainab would have been killed at this point, but by sheer coincidence the cyclist Molliere was passing by and noticed the girl was under attack. He rode in to help and was shot repeatedly. The hit men could not risk the possibility that the cyclist might call the police, who would then seal off their escape routes. The actions of Molliere might truly have saved the life of the oldest daughter - who would otherwise have been shot. After this, the hit men finished killing the adults. However, their concentration had been rattled by the the older daughter being outside the vehicle and the arrival of the cyclist. In addition (see later comments), it is possible that a third witness saw the killing and drove away. Hence the hit men fled the scene quickly before anyone else could see them. The 4-year old daughter posed minimal risk since she had seen nothing, and the older daughter may have appeared to be almost dead at that stage. It is a quick hop for the hit men to cross back into Switzerland - that is a viable escape route with false passports. Special Comment: The white Peugeot. This vehicle was seen driving quickly away from the scene. There are several possibilities. One idea is that the white Peugeot was acting as a surveillance vehicle that was tracking al-Hilli as he drove through France. Certainly possible, since the assault vehicles (green 4x4, motorcycle) were too readily identifiable. The second idea is that the Peugeot was driven by a tourist who had just happened to visit the lookout at the end of the road where the murder took place. The tourist was returning and noticed the entire murder scene unfolding. He then panicked and floored the accelerator of his car to escape. If the latter possibility exists, then there is an additional (frightened) witness who saw the murder scene. This would also explain why the hit men fled the parking lot and never retrieved the spent bullet casings. ------------- SCENARIO B: Under this scenario Molliere was the primary target of the hit men, and al-Hilli's family was simply at the wrong place at the wrong time. Molliere had technical knowledge that would certainly be valuable to the Iranians - particularly as they are trying to develop their own nuclear reactors (producing plutonium as well as electrical power). The exchange of information would be lucrative to Molliere, but would require meetings with Iranian agents. Israel has acted proactively to remove highly-placed technical personnel within the Iranian regime who are accelerating the country's nuclear progress. But could this rationale be extended to a citizen of another country ... it is a big leap - but maybe if the knowledge from Molliere was critical to Iran's progress. Under Scenario B, Molliere was under surveillance and the bicycle race provided a quiet spot in the Alps to make the kill. On the day of the murder, it may have gone something like this. Molliere was being trailed by a motorcycle and a larger vehicle. At some point the motorcycle pulled alongside him and several shots were fired. Due to the low-caliber bullets, he had a few moments of life left in his body. By chance he happened to be near a pull-out, and Molliere raced his bicycle into the parking lot. Being in a panic, he noticed a car parked in the pull-out and tried to get their assistance. However, he collapsed on the ground and died before anyone could do anything. The disturbance of the cyclist aroused the attention of al-Hilli's older daughter, who jumped out of the car and tried to help. At this moment the hit men doubled back from the road - they had seen Molliere go to the BMW parked there. They were forced to eliminate all the witnesses. The motorcycle rider fired repeated shots into the BMW to kill the adults - and was not even aware of the 4-year old in the back seat (covered by the women). The driver of the other 4x4 vehicle got out, put more bullets into Molliere to ensure a certain kill, then shot Zainab - but only hit her shoulder. He then pistol whipped her very hard. And at that point the hit men rushed out of the kill zone and went into their exit strategy. As mentioned before. there is some possibility that a white Peugeot passed by while this action was taking place - causing the hit men to leave in a great hurry. ------------- It appears that French police believe that Scenario A is closer to the truth - since they have passed the momentum of the investigation over to British police. It is not clear if the UK authorities have embraced this option fully. Further background investigations may help to clarify which scenario is more plausible. The actions of the hit men may be described in the following terms: bold, coldly logical, brutal, very lethal. These terms paint a certain "character" to the tactical execution of the job - which may also suggest which agency was involved in the killings. At this stage the investigation is still ongoing ... but progress may be slow as the trail goes cold. If professional agents were involved, the trail will go cold quickly. |
| Posted by:Raider |
| #9 Thanks for the various comments. We'll see if the famous Inspector Clouseau of the French Police gives us any further updates. :-) |
| Posted by: Raider 2012-09-17 21:56 |
| #8 It appears Molliere was shot last, which is consistent with scenario B. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2012-09-17 18:55 |
| #7 Update posted here. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-09-17 12:28 |
| #6 Shooter(s) not knowing how many were in the Saad al-Hilli party (hidden child not discovered), may indicate the targets were not surveilled or followed from their point of departure. If this was the case, the al-Hilli travel itinerary and destination may have been known in advance. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-09-17 11:59 |
| #5 Or Al-Hilli was meeting with the cyclist, unknown to his tracker, who didn't have enough ammo for the extra hit. The girl was pistol-whipped, being of low priority after the adults were taken care of and the possibility of another eyewitness kept him from cleaning up the casings. A shoulder hit by a professional who would also have known that Al Hilli had 2 daughters may imply a glimmer of conscience, leaving the innocent to live another day. Mossad? |
| Posted by: Lumpy Elmoluck 5095 2012-09-17 10:38 |
| #4 Al Hillis seems a stretch, and why pistol whip the child? Posted by phil Empty magazine? |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-09-17 07:51 |
| #3 French Alps massacre Could Sylvain Mollier be main target? |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2012-09-17 06:42 |
| #2 Good analysis, but I am sceptical of scenario B. If Moulinere was the target, killing the Al Hillis seems a stretch, and why pistol whip the child? |
| Posted by: phil_b 2012-09-17 06:29 |
| #1 Thanks Raider! The fact Saad al-Hill worked for an "aerospace company in Britain that did secret satellite work", along with Steve White's post this morning "Iran Starts Work on Advanced Radar" is all very interesting. Yes, seperate disciplines, but they share some common technological links. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2012-09-17 05:59 |