The U.S. believes, based on intercepted communications, interrogations of captured cut-throats and reports from informants on the ground that al Qaeda is sending more and more of its personnel to Syria. There, it is safer (no American UAVs and missile attacks) and the cut-throats expect the Assad dictatorship to fall and the new government to reward al Qaeda (who are doing a lot of the fighting) to be given a sanctuary in Syria. That has happened before but usually did not last as some Islamic terror groups could not help attacking the secular Assad government. A post-Assad government will be no different in the eyes of some hard-core al Qaeda men. Getting out of Yemen isn't easy for known al Qaeda members (who need false documents and such), and even those who can easily pass as just another Yemeni need money and coordination with al Qaeda groups in Syria. So not as many al Qaeda men can travel to Syria as quickly as they would like.
The American UAV campaign has been a huge success, killing dozens of key al Qaeda personnel and many lower ranking terrorists. In the last two weeks at least three dozen al Qaeda have been killed by these attacks and so far this year about 200 have died. Many more al Qaeda have been killed or captured by the army in the south, which is out there daily looking for groups of al Qaeda trying to hide while planning more terror attacks and an eventual comeback. |