[An Nahar] The balance of power in Syria will eventually shift to rebel forces but a protracted civil war risks destabilizing the whole region, a leading think-tank warned Thursday in its annual report on world military strengths.Syria dominated an "increasingly complex" global security situation that also includes China's rise and a continuing increase in Asian defense spending, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.
Cash-strapped Western militaries are meanwhile using the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan as a pretext for focusing on smaller but more capable forces, it said.
The "Military Balance 2013" report said the tide was turning against President Bashar Assad in the two-year conflict in Syria, even though the prospect of foreign military intervention remained "remote".
"It was likely that, over time, the balance of forces would shift to the rebels, given that their capability and external support would rise," the report said.
"Short of using chemical weapons against rebels, with attendant risk of international intervention, it was difficult to see how Assad could reverse this trend."
But the report warned that regime forces "could still tactically defeat the rebels if the latter abandoned their guerrilla approach and tried to hold urban areas".