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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Saturday review: two good analyses of the Korea situation |
| 2013-04-13 |
| by Steve White Spook 86 at In From the Cold writes at Closer to the Brink about what might happen and what the calculations are in various capitals. This analyses emphasizes the danger present in allowing decisions to drift, as Champ is currently doing in the White House. Seoul and Tokyo might decide they have to become more independent in their response, and therein lies danger. Robert Farley (who blogs at Information Dissemination and other places) writes at TheDiplomat that if war comes, it won't be accidental: wars happen because policymakers, making good or bad decisions, want them. He reviews the potential scenarios of action on both sides and concludes that "a full war seems exceedingly unlikely, as none of the combatants stand to benefit." Both articles are recommended. My own take right now is this: war will come if Pudgy puts himself into a position in which war is the least unattractive of the options available to him. He's a weak, vain, cruel man, I think, and such men, particularly in a Stalinist regime, can't afford to lose face, not ever. Ordinarily in the past we let the North Koreans 'climb down' after an escalation. I'm not sure that will happen this time. I don't think war is likely, but I also don't see it as unthinkable. |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #5 there is no doubt that the enemies of the USA, especially those on the outer borders of the (former) empire, are exploiting weakness. Also no doubt that S. Korea and Japan probably have secret programs already for their own nuclearization. So while the USA discusses an attempt at de-nuclearization, others in the region are headed in the opposite direction. Both the N. Koreans and Iranians have undertaken nuclear programs at great cost - in terms of sanctions, isolation, and destruction of their own economies. Do we seriously believe they will back off now? It seems extremely unlikely. They will see the "de-nuclearization strategy as a trick by the USA. There might have been a time on the Korean peninsula when the de-nuclearization idea could have worked. When tensions were much lower. Even then ... it would have been a gamble because the N. Koreans can field a large army. If you take nukes out of the picture, war becomes a very possible option again. The world is caught in an impass. No way to back out of the nuclear positions taken by the opposing sides. |
| Posted by: Raider 2013-04-13 12:22 |
| #4 The ChiComs smell SKor and Japanese awakening to nukes for their protection as the confidence of the US umbrella and sheild wanes under Champ's expert foreign policy. Speeches, fund raiders and the love of fawning adoration that are the total skill of this clown do not grow confidence in allies who see a shell of former greatness stumbling worldwide. |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2013-04-13 11:20 |
| #3 US and China aim for de-nuclearization of Korean peninsula? Not a bad idea ... but should have been tried while things were less volatile. ASITISNOW - does anyone remotely believe that Kim Jong-Un will allow inspectors over every square inch of his territory? And how else do people ensure a goal like de-nuclearization? |
| Posted by: Raider 2013-04-13 10:07 |
| #2 JM that was excellent. I would cutback on the the coffee however. :) Pay no attention to me. I enjoyed your post. |
| Posted by: Dale 2013-04-13 09:12 |
| #1 OTOH WORLD MILITARY FORUM > CCTV: "WHAT IFF" THE US SUDDENLY ABANDONED JAPAN DUE TO THE BELIEF THAT JAPAN'S NATIONALIZATION OF THE CHINA-CLAIMED SENKAKUS/DIAOYUS ISLANDS LED TO THE PRESENT NORTH KOREAN MILITARY CRISIS? * DEFENCE.PK/FORUMS > US NATIONAL SECURITY BRIEF: OBAMA SCALING BACK SHOW OF FORCE ON [North]KOREA. Once again, my bad vibes vee China-vs-Japan-vs-Debt/Sequester-ridden-US remains NOT abated. IFF THE US "ABANDONS" JAPAN + SOKOR, ETC. BECAUSE IT CAN NO LONGER TO DEFEND ITS ALLIES IT CAN ABANDON GUAM + CNMI, ETC. FOR SAME OR SIMILAR REASON(S). [CELINE "TITANIC" DION, BATTLESHIP USS OKLAHOMA, + HUGO CHAVEZ'S LAND, ISLAND-SINKING "TECTONIC/ EARTHQUAKE BOMBS" here]. and * NBC NEWS > [Failed = Un-intercepted] MISSLE LAUNCH(launches?) IS NORTH KOREA'S "EXIT STRATEGY" [from Crisis], ANALYSTS SAY. Espec iff the US-Allies fail to intercept as the DPRK's missles fly harmlessly over Japan, ALLOWING "PUDGY" TO SEEMINGLY PROCLAIM A DE FACTO, MIGHTY NOKOR "VICTOIRE" [victory] OVER THE WILY DASTARDLY US-ALLIES + FINALLY STOP THE BELLICOSITY??? versus * BHARAT RAKSHAK > [Carnegie Endowment] DRAGON IN THE BATHTUB: CHINESE SUBMARINES AND [versus] THE SOUTH CHINA SEA [+ "First Island Chain" bottlenecks]. ARTIC = denotes how Chinese MilPol strategists fear Beijing's growing Navy, etc. will be hamstrung = contained widin the many barriers of the mostly anti-China "First Island Chain" in East Asia, stretching from Japan all the way southward towards the Indonesian Archipelago. ISLAMIST-JIHADISTS THREAT [Nuclear?]? FROM ME + CENTASIA, AFPAK; versus the US ANTI-CHINA CONTAINMENT THREAT in the Pacific. Its onlya question of whether OWG Caliphate-happy Radical ISlam will attack China first in jihad before attacking the US, or vice versa. Again, either China concedes, or the US = POTUS Obama + Admin concedes. CHINA = IRAN = the time is now before a GOP-DEM POTUS successor strong in foreign policy takes over come Jan. 2017. THE US-ALLIES SHOULD EXPECT THE SAME OR WORSE CRISES THAN THE PRESENT AS LONG AS THE DPRK CAN NO LONGER WAIT FOR REUNIFICATION WID SOUTH KOREA, + AS LONG AS ["Mahanist"]CHINA REFUSES TO DELAY, AMEND, OR GIVE UP ITS AMBITION TO TAKE OVER FROM THE US AS WORLD #1. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2013-04-13 01:00 |