| Not that their opinion matters a great deal, in this case. |
Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneckal-Assad
Despoiler of Deraa...
's chances for survival has sharpened recently within the Israeli defense establishment. A senior defense official claimed recently in closed conversations that Israel has erred in its estimates of how quickly Assad would fall from power in Syria.
According to the official, Israel has "underestimated" Assad's strength and the inner life force of the Syrian regime.
Currently, there are differing opinions within the defense establishment about what to expect in Syria and what outcome for its northern neighbor would benefit Israel.
The opinion that the fall of Assad and the assumption of power by the rebels would be good for Israel has become less popular recently, as it has emerged that the infiltration of bully boy Jihad and al-Qaeda elements is deeper and wider than was originally estimated.
There are those who believe Israel should prepare for a scenario in which Assad survives, if not in his previous role as the president of "Big Syria" - then at least in his current situation in which he holds power in Damascus and in the corridors to the large coastal cities.
This scenario, which actually would entail the breaking up of Syria into three separate states, is likely the optimal scenario as far as Israel is concerned. However the defense establishment is stressing that all scenarios are possible in Syria and a change in policy by the West that will lead to military intervention could tip the scales toward one side or the other.