On Friday, the U.S. State Department issued a worldwide travel alert for Americans, citing an unspecified al Qaeda threat. The bulletin said that the highest threat levels are the Middle East and North Africa, "and possibly occurring in or emanating from the Arab Peninsula." On Saturday, unnamed U.S. officials told media outlets Yemeni intelligence agencies alerted Washington to the threat during the visit by the Yemeni president to Washington. U.S. officials speaking on the condition of anonymity further told press representatives that "chatter" among "operatives" from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula had been taking place over the last several weeks, and increased over the last few days, lending further credence to the Yemeni warning.
Intelligence officials are dismayed that the administration provided so much detail on what prompted the closings, and that the disclosures could work against obtaining new information. Militants are now likely searching for the sources of the information to both the U.S. and Yemeni officials, and almost certainly will kill anyone they suspect of working with Western intelligence. In warning about possible al Qaeda attacks against Americans overseas, U.S. officials may have provided too much detail about intercepted chatter and the source of the information, and that may make it more difficult to get such tips next time, former and current intelligence officials say. Other sources are also likely to reconsider their relationship with the United States over the disclosures.
The statement that the threat could be from " the Arab Peninsula" suggests that the terrorist group planning the operation is al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). That group has brown stronger over the last two years, according to intelligence sources. It has garnered new adherents and developed new weapons. The United States views AQAP as such a significant threat that it not only uses drone attacks to target the group, but it has also sent advisors to Yemen to help the military combat AQAP on the ground. Intelligence, however, is the most successful method to counter terrorism.
"I can't even begin to tell you how many attacks we have stopped thanks to intelligence. But we don't go out and broadcast that to the world. It doesn't work that way," says an active intelligence officer in the Middle East. "Now? We are going to have to start all over again. We are operating blind."