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Africa North
Five Lessons from Egypt and the Arab Spring
2013-08-07
h/t Gates of Vienna
1. Don't Believe Anything You Hear

...Middle Eastern politics is reality-selective, it's conspiratorial and it's based around shaky alliances between mortal enemies that are constantly falling apart.

...everything you hear coming out of Egypt is meaningless. Egyptian politics is completely cynical and completely unaware of its own cynicism. Everyone manufactures their own propaganda and conspiracy theories.

...Not only does no one there mean what they say, but they don't even know that they don't mean it.
The permitted/required lies of taqiyya, tawriya, kitman, and muruna make it hard to separate truth from lies, when the lie is actually higher truth, Allah being the master of deceit and all.
2. It's Not Democracy, It's Permanent Chaos

Democracy in the Middle East is just another means of political change. It's not any different than mob action, a coup or an invasion. It's just a way that one government replaces another.
"One man, one vote, one time." Or contrariwise, we will keep voting until the voters get the right answer.
It's just another way of describing business as usual...
Beyond all the obvious critiques of exporting democracy, the voting booth depends on a sense of law and order. It carries very little weight in lawless societies. In Egypt, mass protests really are as legitimate a means of political change as the ballot box. Probably better. It's harder to rig rallies of millions of people than it is to fake millions of votes.
Vote by mob is a very long tradition in Arab societies...
The Arab Spring represented political chaos in a lawless society, not social change or cultural enlightenment.

3. Everyone Will Always Hate America

The one thing that everyone in Egypt can agree on is that they hate America.

The Muslim Brotherhood hates America. Period. Not for anything we've done. This hatred is widely shared in Egypt. It will always be widely shared in Egypt. Denouncing America is one of the safest political positions to take. It's the Egyptian equivalent of motherhood and apple pie.

4. Fanatics and Democracy Don't Mix

One of the fondest myths of democracy promotion is that bringing terrorists into the political process moderates them. It doesn't.

John Kerry headed out on yet another peace process mission is a reminder of the futility of such thinking.
John Kerry is a reminder of the futility of thinking. He can't help it, poor man, he just wasn't born with the right tools. That's why the family sent him to school in France.
Bringing terrorists into the political process just gives them another set of tools with which to tear the system down. Which was their first goal...
Fanatics don't compromise because their goals require purity. They feint compromise only long enough to get to power. And then they turn on their former allies.
See required lies, above.
5. The Muslim World Has No New Ideas

...The three options are still military rule, strongman or theocracy. There is no fourth option. The Arab Spring tilted the rule of strongmen and soldiers toward theocracy. That outcome was as modern as the Caliphate. Now the military has once again stepped in. Eventually there will be a strongman. Or a theocracy. Or a junta. And they will go on overthrowing each other

Everything else is only window dressing or a disguise for where the power actually goes.
Posted by:g(r)omgoru

#2  Not only does no one there mean what they say, but they don't even know that they don't mean it

I think it was T.E. Lawrence who first commented on the Arab mind's astonishing capability to hold two opposing thoughts as equally true, at the same time.
Posted by: Pappy   2013-08-07 11:36  

#1  Democracy in the Middle East is just another means of political change. It's not any different than mob action, a coup or an invasion. It's just a way that one government replaces another.
No different than anywhere else.
Posted by: Glenmore   2013-08-07 07:40  

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