Will ‘Dostumistan’ Be Established Near Afghanistan’s Border With Uzbekistan?
In January 2014, the chairman of the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan party, General Abdul Rashid Dostum, a well-known politician and leader of ethnic Uzbeks in Afghanistan, made unofficial visits to Uzbekistan’s capital of Tashkent, the Kazakhstani capital of Astana, and Almaty—Kazakhstan’s largest city. According to most analysts, General Dostum was visiting these Central Asian countries in order to negotiate potential military and technical assistance. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Dostum was also planning to visit the Kyrgyz Republic’s capital of Bishkek and Turkmenistan’s capital of Ashgabat, but his plans changed for unknown reasons and he quickly left Central Asia for India (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, on January 31).
According to Aleksei Malashenko, an expert at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, Abdul Rashid Dostum’s January 2014 visit to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan was to remind these countries about himself. “Nobody knows how the events will unfold following the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan [by late 2014],” Malashenko said, adding, “Apparently, Dostum wants to remain in politics [in Afghanistan] and to play an important role using the Central Asia factor [that is, his links in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and beyond]. He does not want to be written-off; his activism stems from this” (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, on January 31).
Alexander Knyazev, an Almaty-based coordinator of the Central Asia and Caucasus program at the Russian Institute of Oriental Studies, argues that General Dostum wants to establish close relations with the Kazakhstani authorities, starting with the security ministries, while also maintaining his ties to the authorities in Tashkent. Knyazev believes that during DostumÂ’s January visit to Astana, the Afghan general may have met with the chairman of KazakhstanÂ’s committee on national security, Nurtai Abikaev (AuthorÂ’s interview, February 10).
Much as they did in the 1990s, the Uzbekistani authorities recognize the possible value a buffer state in the ethnically Uzbek region of Afghanistan—should one again be established there. “Dostum is one of the most secular politicians in Afghanistan and his policy is convenient for the Central Asia authorities. Nobody wants to see the Taliban near their borders,” said pro-government Uzbek political scientist Rafik Saifulin (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, on January 31).
“After the withdrawal of US troops, the probability of Afghanistan disintegrating into a few ethnic-based states is high,” the Russian Oriental Studies Institute’s Knyazev told Jamestown. “It is possible that Dostum discussed with Uzbek and Kazakh authorities the option of recreating a de-facto independent state in the Uzbek part of Afghanistan,” Knyazev posited (Author’s interview, February 10).
DostumÂ’s growing influence is advantageous not only for Central Asian authorities, but also possibly for the Kremlin. Considering his roots in the Soviet military establishment, Dostum could serve as a useful tool for Moscow to reinforce its own political position in Afghanistan. However, the feasibility of all these sidesÂ’ strategies will likely not become fully apparent until after the Afghan presidential elections of April 2014 and the WestÂ’s complete military exit from the country.