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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Black clouds over Ukraine |
| 2014-04-25 |
| h/t Gates of Vienna In earlier postings, I have speculated on what a bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be Ukraine's economy and people. But the situation has deteriorated and getting to the problems associated with the IMF is a long shot. Right now, the Kiyv government and the West nations are wondering about Russia's intentions. And beyond that, could Russia's intentions have "unleashed" tensions internally that cannot be controlled? Today, the three most likely outcomes are: Russia continues its annexation of land on its borders; Russia is content with annexing Crimea but a civil war encompasses the rest of Ukraine, or things settle down and the IMF program is implemented. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #3 The end goal Putin wants is to annex the eastern parts of Ukraine, At the risk of arguing with people who actually know about this stuff... I think Putin's end game is a little more subtle: he simply wants non-hostile (read non-NATO) buffer areas on the border. If the eastern part of Ukraine splits off in some way but remains part of the Ukraine, Putin would be satisfied. The Crimea was a different story, in spite of being right next door. That was a strategic Russian interest and they would have gone to actual fighting/shooting war over that. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2014-04-25 23:07 |
| #2 OS: I think Obama _wanted_ to be played; I think he thinks of the actual productive economy part of the West as The Enemy, to either struggle with his foot on his neck, or get sold out to a convenient 'frenemy' like Putin. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-04-25 15:09 |
| #1 The end goal Putin wants is to annex the eastern parts of Ukraine, with their industrial base - conveniently leaving their debt and economic issues with Ukraine as part of the disintegration. that leaves the western parts for the west to deal with, as well as ALL the debt from the entire country that was run up the by Russian gangsters who were looting the country for the last decade. The net effect is Putin's gangsters loot the country racking up debt, flee to Russia with the loot, then Putin steals the industrial parts for his fascist oligarchs (the the bonus of "Nationalism" as handy excuse for censorship and tightening political control over the Russian rabble of rubes), and sends the debt to the west. Obama is a naif, and Putin played him big time. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-04-25 11:24 |