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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| MH17 some curious points to imagine and ponder |
| 2014-07-19 |
| by Anon1 Imagine MH370 being downed was a trial run. Just a test - so no group claimed responsibility when it vanished. Perhaps downed by people with access to Malaysia Airlines planes like ground crew or other staff, mechanics or pilots Now imagine they then downed MH17 on purpose over eastern Ukraine Everybody will blame Russia because Russia has been downing Ukrainian planes and arming rebel groups to claim plausible deniability It is most logical to think it is either an accident from one of those groups, or from Russia. It is also logical to assume that both Russia and its militias would be stupid and enough to screw up the crash scene, contaminating it. Putin, an ex-KGB thug, will blame Ukraine and try to score political points at home, and censor the media - as he has done. Looking guilty as sin. All of that ensures more blame to Russia. All predictable and thus able to be manipulated. It has thus set the scene for confrontation between Nato/ the US and Russia So - Who benefits from such a conflict? Here are a few thought doodles, i am intersted to read what others might think: Indonesia - islamist backers of war criminal Prabowo Subianto who is about to lose the presidential election. Votes are being counted now. Prabowo has the contacts and expertise as he is ex-army and ex-intel. His minions poisoned an Indonesian human rights activist Munir Thalib flying Garuda to Amsterdam in 2004. Arsenic in the orange juice. An off-duty airline pilot was sentenced to 14 years jail. So he has the capability. He has infiltrated Muslim airlines before. What would he gain? Such a conflict would keep the world busy elsewhere if Prabowo wants to stage another coup like Suharto before him. Prabowo knows that the US only turns a blind eye to Indonesian attrocities when it needs Jakarta strategically such as in the cold war as a bulwark against communism. Without major geopolitical tension, in 1999 the US withdrew support for Suharto's genocide and East Timor was freed. For a coup to work, Prabowo needs international conflict to draw the US elsewhere to remove the threat of intervention. The pan-Islamist movement On the march in every corner of the world. Richly funded by petrodollars and in control of several large countries. Malaysia has also been its stomping ground before for a similar plot to down passenger airlines: operation bojinka What would it win? It would set two enemies to fight each other while the Caliphate entrenches itself and grows. This ideology is an evil religious threat and very powerful. Iran Already shown to be an arch manipulator in dragging the US into Iraq with false Intel. With the new Sunni caliphate rising in the region, Iran may now want to make moves in Iraq. To keep the US out would mean keeping it very busy with Russia. China keeps its enemies busy fighting each other, enabling it to explore more options in the south China sea without resistance from the US Putin/Russia sparks the confrontation he wants with plausible deniability that he is directly to blame His popularity soars at home A very dangerous man. Ukraine With the world blaming Russia it can finally hope to get help in protecting its territory from invasion. Has the most to win. To set against this ukraine has consistently behaved in a very restrained, sympathetic and transparent manner. I don't think they did it. North Korea The hermit kingdom might like to see the US embroiled elsewhere. Not sure why but when has North Korea ever been logical? Chinese support has been waning lately so it is time for a temper tantrum Or: ockhams razor. The most simple explanation is likely the most correct. That Russia gave missile launchers to rebels who didn't know how to use them properly. They thought it was a Ukrainian plane they shot down but - whoops - it was a passenger jet. Then with further idiocy they contaminate the crash scene and look guilty as hell in their attempts to cover up. I think this is true. But still, it is interesting that it is again Malaysian Airlines.... Are there any other thoughts and imaginings that Rantbug denizens might share? |
| Posted by:Anon1 |
| #28 N. B. Occam and Ockham are just variant spellings. Take your pick, but either almost certainly and accurately covers what happened. Of all his faults (and they're approaching the infinite) this is way down the list for the POTUS. The far more interesting situation is Western European energy resources - particularly the Germans. The farther west you get, the less influence Russia has. To the extent they will supply Eastern Europe, they will further commercial ties, military ties, and cut Russian sway. The process is well underway, and as the west and/or Kurd/Israeli resources come into play, the effects will increase. Doubtful if Putin can stop, or even delay it. |
| Posted by: Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2014-07-19 20:52 |
| #27 Gotta agree w/ Bill C about 370 being a reusable container. don't know if JP will be the agent of choice, but some sort of bomb is coming wrapped in a Boeing delivery package. |
| Posted by: USN, Ret. 2014-07-19 20:15 |
| #26 3dc: You mean SA-11. SS-11 is a whole different beast (Soviet strategic ICBM, Minuteman counterpart, thankfully no longer in operation). |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-07-19 20:07 |
| #25 US systems generally are not tasked in areas where there is no urgent or important target. Technical assets are limited, and due to the nature of most threats, tasking must be prioritized. Plus the history of threats has generally been in the northern hemisphere so that is where most assets are set up to dwell. In most of the southern hemisphere other than SE Asia, Africa and South America landmasses, there is of little immediate military consequence that would require such technical high-resource (ELINT, IR) intelligence gathering, especially in the southern oceanic areas. So MH370 was in a "blind spot", not by design but by happenstance. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-07-19 20:00 |
| #24 It would be cute if "rogue" SS-11 unit shot down a certain dictators Hind.. just before it was supposed to pick him up. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2014-07-19 15:34 |
| #23 MH370 is sitting on the ground some where in SE Asia being prepared for a real doozy of a terrorist attack on some major city within the cruising range of a 777. The fact that NOTHING has been found of the aircraft tells me it did not crash in the Indian Ocean. Something that big does not hit the water at 180 mph without scattering tons of floating crap everywhere. It is time to start tracking purchases of JP-5 to see if some small airport in the SE is buying lots of the stuff for no apparent reason. That jet will resurface and someone will have hell to pay when it does. |
| Posted by: Bill Clinton 2014-07-19 14:35 |
| #22 Oh, and finally: I do think it's worthwhile to look at all the people who are calling for an "investigation" of what happened here, in particular China... and does this offer hints to what happened to MH370? Did something happen to it somewhere out where the SBIRS wasn't looking. If we're just gonna brainstorm, think about this: What happens wrt acts of war against China when it can't be traced to a country they're interested in going to war against _and_ they're in the middle of trying to provoke firefights with both the Philipines and Vietnam? |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:59 |
| #21 In short, while they can buy better electronics and guidance systems for their command-launched missiles, they can't just buy decent personnell, unless they get a better deal from Germany and decide to cut out the middle man. Then the Ukranians can ask for the EU (which is mainly Germany) to protect them against the Germans invading them from Russia. Have a headache yet? Financially, that's what's happening there _now_, only without the people. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:47 |
| #20 Anon1: I don't think they shot down the airliner with the intent of going with this propaganda line. I think it's more of a "If Life Gives You Lemons, Make Lemon Drops" sort of thing. Remember, up to now they've been pushing the whole "The West is weak after spending a decade and a half trying to fight the Arabs, and then suffering Obama's mismanagement, we're Strong Again, We're Flush With German/EU Money, and We're Gonna Put The Band Back Together." Except we just found out that even where their technology is sticking together and prevailing, it's run by a bunch of Cheap Rent-a-Chechens or worse, Uzbeks, of the "Uzbeks drank my battery acid!" type. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:38 |
| #19 TL;DR => The US Intelligence community knew it was the Putin supplied Russians who did this before the aircraft even hit the ground, thanks to technical assets. Anything else is politics. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-07-19 13:28 |
| #18 Pan and Pappy - that article (not me, but the article, for legal purposes) says we have systems that get that data acquired, machine analyzed and cross checked very quickly. If you will note, in the article I linked, they actually say US sources had the launch PO (Point of Origin) and initial track of the missile determined a minute BEFORE the missile impacted the target. Think about that. I can neither confirm nor deny the accuracy of such reports. One might consider that such a system that delivers such accurate information with such accuracy as well as a FLASH traffic messaging system world wide, in order to warn US Military Aircraft might be something of fairly great utility to the US Department of Defense in protecting its aircraft. Just saying that if such a system can be imagined, it might have been built years ago. And perhaps the command authority would have had the reports of the full engagement including aircraft impact/detonation before the aircraft actually hit the ground. And that given the Ukraine is a hot spot, there would be assets tasked for coverage of the region, including "long look" and "long stare" assets (there is a difference) That is, of course, making an assumption that National Command Authority, including the CINC and his immediate staff security advisors, had any interest in actually staying alert to such things, instead of eating lunch with the commoners and going to closed private fund raisers. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-07-19 13:21 |
| #17 Ahhh thing from snowy mountain! Glad to see you! Yes yes that polonium poisoning : exactly the same tactic i am thinking of They want you to know They want the veneer of deniability to be thin so everyone knows The lesson is: we can get you even in a london restaurant. We can get you anywhere and look your governments are not going to do anything about it The primary audience is likely dissidents. It discourages them as it snuffs out hope they can get help outside |
| Posted by: Anon1 2014-07-19 13:19 |
| #16 It's like the Polonium Poisoning: they want us to know they did it and that our "authorities" are going to look the other way and demand an "investigation," run out the clock, and pretend they're being just. |
| Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:14 |
| #15 So good to see all my old favourites, badanov, nimble spemble, uncle phester, steve white, hoping trailing wife is around and happy too. All very interesting Particularly like the speculation of accident or deliberate And putin or militia Interestingly China is supporting Russia by its mealymouthed "too early to tell" pronouncements when it seems there is plenty of evidence as to where it came from, just not why. Perhaps Putin did shoot the airline down on purpose, not an accident But with plausible deniability that it was deliberate So he could send a message to the world "dont f* with me over ukraine" Maybe it is a real hard shove of the boundaries He is truly the hitler of the new century. He would be a cartoon old world dictator straight out of history books if he weren't so frighteningly alive now |
| Posted by: Anon1 2014-07-19 13:13 |
| #14 Thanks OS, I was wondering if we could pick that up. Now the question is: Why Malaysia airlines? There was constant traffic across that route. If they would have shot down any first world aircraft some action would have been unavoidable, IE dragging Germany or France into the war. They hit the only country that flies that route that has no ream means of retaliation. I don't believe in coincidence of just dumb luck. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2014-07-19 11:47 |
| #13 how did the separatists get the SA-11 system There was mention online even before MH17 was downed that Ukraine lost one of its BUK systems to the rebels. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2014-07-19 11:39 |
| #12 ..and give that the Euros aren't rushing to rearm (even Chamberlain regenerated his rearmament after Munich), its not going to be fun to live close to the bear. Even if the one were to be replaced by a far more competent and realistic leader, I don't see the 'will' for America committing significant ground troops or the major allocation of its defense budget to protect a Europe that demonstrates by its lack of action any concern other than to issue strongly worded statements. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2014-07-19 10:48 |
| #11 Like Steve White said. |
| Posted by: Uncle Phester 2014-07-19 10:35 |
| #10 This is simple enough that it could be in the game Clue: Russian separatists, with the SA-11s, in Donetsk. No conspiracy needed, or welcome. We do not need to cloud the required clarity of focus for what comes next. The real issue is whether the shooters thought they were nailing a Ukrainian transport aircraft (more likely) or were deliberating shooting down a civilian airliner. Answer that question. Then answer the obvious questions, how did the separatists get the SA-11 system, who operated it, who trained them, and why did it bug out for Mother Russia? These questions pretty much answer themselves but the process of documentation will be useful. Russia (Putin) is responsible. They've backed the separatists from day one. Russia wants the Crimea and eastern Ukraine as part of the motherland. They may want the western part as well. Putin is trained in the martial arts -- he understands strength, weakness, and pivot points very well. He's using his strengths here and counting on his opponents weaknesses. Putin has weaknesses himself. The recent success and reorganization of the Ukrainian military was a surprise to Putin, I believe. I believe he thought his pawns would stand better in a fight. His logistics are still a mess. His own military isn't as good as the world would think. He needs to keep this fight below the threshold that would unite Europe (i.e., Germany) against him. And now the world can (should) see clearly that Putin is happy to blow away hundreds of innocents at a time if that is what it takes. Despite these clear weaknesses, we don't have a president/administration that will take advantage. Instead we have our own principal weakness: Barack Obama. He's not very bright, though we'll all concede that he is extremely cunning. He's surrounded himself with third-class talent that is more into hashtags and yachting than in the serious business of foreign policy. Obama himself has no interest in foreign affairs. He is nothing more than an appetite. So on one side we have a clear thinking autocrat and on the other side we have a weakling. Any guesses as to how this will turn out? |
| Posted by: Steve White 2014-07-19 10:15 |
| #9 You forgot one potential conspirator, Anon1; Airbus. All these Boeing disasters have to benefit the competition. I had much the same thought about the peculiar coincidence of both of the recent major commercial air travel disasters being with the same small carrier - really long odds. But I'll accept Occam. Now if there is a THIRD Malaysia Airlines disaster ..... |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2014-07-19 08:37 |
| #8 What idiot of an air traffic controller would route planes over a war zone? I also read this plane was not in the corridor preceded/followed by other planes. I think accident but with a slight taste of setup. |
| Posted by: BrerRabbit 2014-07-19 08:17 |
| #7 "I did it to them; I'll do it to you. Keep making selfies and hashtags, and stay out of Ukraina. |
| Posted by: badanov 2014-07-19 08:16 |
| #6 which bear/ |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2014-07-19 07:24 |
| #5 Thanks for that bit of sanity OS. I've seen other tin hat assessments as well. The simple answer [in this case] may be the only correct answer. At least one advanced Russian Air Defense system and trained Russian crew was pushed across the border with the intention of bringing down Ukrainian military aircraft. The key 'take aways' [yes there are two] isn't the downing of an aircraft. A shoot-down or proof of concept was surely inevitable. A key 'take away' is the failure of the US intelligence apparatus to share this key deployment and escalation with the Ukrainian military and international aviation community. This speaks to the total disengagement of the Washington regime. The second 'take away' was the removal and return to Mother Russia of the system with one empty launcher, without cover, in broad daylight, where it was easily videotaped and viewed via overhead. Not enough that the Russian stops to piss at the edge of the woods, he must also face oncoming traffic. Bottom line: Be advised, the Russians are willing to deploy and use this and other systems against civilian and military aircraft to protect their interests in the Ukraine, Syria, and possibly Iran. The worst has now happened on the front porch of the weakest POTUS in the history of the United States. Everything from here on out will be business as usual for the Bear. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2014-07-19 07:10 |
| #4 hello Old Spook glad to see you here again after all these years. Impressive facts. I think it's an open and shut case right there. |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-07-19 06:56 |
| #3 The US has clear IR signature of the missile launch track and detonation flash, as well as ELINT of the tracking, lock on, guidance and terminal homing signatures. Go read up on SBIRS, and other non air breathing overhead recon assets. Also check out US Satellites pin down precise missile launch Point Of Origin |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-07-19 03:27 |
| #2 shame on me, of course it is "Occam's razor" not "Ockham's razor". It's not the only bad spelling I have been lazy enough to let slip. Well it was just an idle set of thoughts to while away a rainy Saturday afternoon.... It won't be long before real conspiracy theorists start jamming their "9/11 was done by jooos" logic into the wheel |
| Posted by: anon1 2014-07-19 02:44 |
| #1 Careful. You could blame SpaceX if this causes the next delivery of LockMart/ULA engines for the Atlas 5 soon due to go belly up. This would leave SpaceX and Boeing the only viable EELV class rocket sources. Conspiracy theory quickly leads to madness. Occam's Razor. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2014-07-19 02:09 |