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| Terror Networks | ||
| On ISIS: Two Reports From StrategyPage | ||
| 2014-08-10 | ||
So far this year ISIL has shifted more of its attention to Iraq, where it believes it has more opportunities because the Shia led government there is considered less competent (there is some truth to that). In Syria the Assad forces are taking advantage of the ISIL shift as well as the continuing battle between ISIL and all the other rebels. This has significantly weakened the rebels, to the point where a government offensive to regain control of Aleppo appears to be succeeding. The Syrian civil war, now in its fourth year, has left over 170,000 dead so far. The current fighting is killing nearly 5,000 people a month. The Syrian government seems to consider ISIL an ally as in some parts of the countries the ISIL is killing more rebels than the nearby government forces are. The ISIL gains in Iraq mean that the Assad government is no longer the main ISIL target in Syria. This also means that the Saudis and Iranians have to pause their growing Sunni-Shia feud because both countries have more to fear from ISIL Sunni Islamic terrorism than from each other. Western nations know they are already on the ISIL radar and are cracking down on ISIL fund raising and recruiting in the West. While Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states are officially opposed to ISIL, their intelligence and police agencies report that over 5,000 young men from the Arab Gulf states are currently fighting for ISIL. About 75 percent of those are from Saudi Arabia and these Gulf Arabs make up nearly a third of the front line ISIL strength. Moreover, most of the foreign cash contributions for ISIL come from the Gulf Arabs. As it has for over a thousand years the allure of a united Islamic state (the caliphate) still appeals to many young Moslem men. Older Moslems know better (that the caliphate never worked as intended and why). Until Moslems figure out how to deal with this deadly fantasy the bouts of Islamic terrorism will continue to periodically deliver death and destruction on the Moslem world. Iraq: Blood Feuds And Genocide In The North This fanatic ISIL attitude is backfiring. In the eastern Syria the alliance ISIL had with the local Sunni tribes is falling apart. It's an old story being replayed. The local tribesmen are not happy with ISIL efforts to force a strict Islamic lifestyle on them. Also unpopular is the ISIL attitude that anything they do is above reproach. That resulted in a recent ISIL edict that anyone in the areas they control who says (in person or via the media or Internet) anything hostile to ISIL will be severely punished. There have already been some executions of critics. This has recently led to several battles in villages as the tribes went to war with ISIL and won. More astute ISIL leaders have caused ISIL forces to refrain from escalating the fight and there appear to be efforts to negotiate the problem. In Iraq the same thing is happening. The Sunni tribes that ISIL expected to be allies and take care of administering the newly conquered territories have, increasingly, refused to impose the strict lifestyle rules ISIL demands. While the Sunni tribes like the measure of law and order ISIL has imposed they are not willing to accept all the other features of ISIL rule. The secular Sunnis (mainly the surviving Baath Party organizations) initially believed they could work with ISIL have since turned against the strict forms of Islam ISIL insists on. Meanwhile ISIL has antagonized many Islamic conservative groups by destroying shrines and even mosques ISIL considers heretical despite the fact that most Sunni Arabs tolerate these places because they are very popular, and bring in a significant amount of tourist business from foreigners and religious pilgrims. The loss of support from secular Sunnis is a particularly debilitating defeat for ISIL, which only has about 15,000 armed men in Iraq. That is not enough to control all the territory they have access to in western and northern Iraq. ISIL expected skilled Iraqi Sunni Arabs to join them and this included the Baath Party. Saddam's many supporters in the Baath Party are largely secular but also fanatic and hostile to Shia Iraqis. Baath contains many specialists and experienced Islamic terrorists that could be helpful to ISIL. But ISIL is full of religious fanatics who, not surprisingly, were not pleased with the general lack of religious fervor among the Baath members. Similar unstable alliances are coming apart wherever ISIL has taken control in it new caliphate of eastern Syria and western Iraq. The original caliphates all fell apart for the same reasons. Some ISIL leaders were aware of this possibility and they may yet gain enough control over the organization to create a more accommodating approach. Given the recent history of Islamic terrorist organizations, this is unlikely.
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| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #4 Bravo, ZH! |
| Posted by: Barbara 2014-08-10 18:49 |
| #3 The Arab, sublimely indignant, Thinks Israel's sly and malignant, But the Hebrew's jiujitsu He proudly admits to: The Jew's secret weapon is Sigmund! |
| Posted by: Zenobia Floger6220 2014-08-10 14:21 |
| #2 Until Moslems figure out how to deal with this deadly fantasy the bouts of Islamic terrorism will continue to periodically deliver death and destruction on the Moslem world Lessee... vast majority of casualties have been Arab, the 99% of the states threatened are Arab (I'll include the "black flag over the White House" remark in this one) and Hamas is essentially devoid of Arab support this time around... All of which would happen, if one takes into account the Arab mind... g(r)om, you magnificent bastard - I'm on to you! |
| Posted by: Pappy 2014-08-10 11:38 |
| #1 A sharp,hammer blow against ISIS leadership and any units where the foreign elements are concentrated would likely be enough to put them on their heels at least temporarily. And once its apparent that you are no longer the strong horse... |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2014-08-10 09:23 |